luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 7 2024 · October 20, 2024

Titans at Bills, Week 7 2024: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Titans 34–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 11:01 left): the Bills converted 3rd & 12, worth 11 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Tennessee Titans 10
Buffalo Bills 34

October 20, 2024 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −9.5

Luck index +1 Bills about even · −1 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 0, Bills win 10.

  1. 1 TEN 10 BUF 16
  2. 2 TEN 7 BUF 17
  3. 3 TEN 7 BUF 19
  4. 4 TEN 7 BUF 22
  5. 5 TEN 13 BUF 31
  6. 6 TEN 10 BUF 31
  7. 7 TEN 7 BUF 31
  8. 8 TEN 10 BUF 38
  9. 9 TEN 6 BUF 38
  10. 10 TEN 0 BUF 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 1% of them, Bills 99%. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+0.0%
Titans by 9–160.0%
Titans by 1–80.6%
Level after regulation0.2%
Bills by 1–82.1%
Bills by 9–169.4%
Bills by 17+87.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.4 points to the Titans: the final margin was Bills by 24, without the luck Bills by 25.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • T. Bass, 28 yds made · 95% expected
  • T. Bass, 30 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 8 for 52 yards, Bills 5 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:42 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Tre Avery), 7 yards +2% BUF +0.5 pts
Q1 10:39 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.7 pts
Q1 9:21 Defensive Offside on the Bills (Gregory Rousseau), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.4 pts
Q1 5:20 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.8 pts
Q1 1:29 Offensive Holding on the Titans (James Williams), 10 yards +3% BUF +0.9 pts
Q1 0:38 Illegal Shift on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +6% BUF +1.3 pts
Q2 12:58 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 10 yards +3% TEN +1.2 pts
Q3 10:23 Illegal Contact on the Bills (Christian Benford), 5 yards +1% TEN +0.2 pts
Q3 9:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Rasul Douglas), 15 yards +7% TEN +1.5 pts
Q3 9:38 False Start on the Titans (Chigoziem Okonkwo), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% BUF +0.6 pts
Q3 5:16 Defensive Offside on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.5 pts
Q3 3:25 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +3% BUF +1.9 pts
Q3 3:06 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.4 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:18 The Bills got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +6% BUF BUF: Punt
2 Q1 8:57 The Titans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +6% TEN TEN: Field goal
3 Q1 7:34 The Titans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% TEN TEN: Field goal
4 Q2 8:38 The Titans fumbled and the Bills recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% BUF TEN: Punt
5 Q2 0:01 The Titans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% TEN TEN: Turnover on downs
6 Q3 12:59 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +9% BUF TEN: Punt
7 Q3 11:01 The Bills converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +11% BUF BUF: Touchdown
8 Q3 9:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Rasul Douglas), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 32 flags in 5159 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +7% TEN TEN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • L'Jarius Sneed (TEN CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Chidobe Awuzie (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Treylon Burks (TEN WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 0% · Bills 100%

Final margin
Bills by 24
Luck in points
1.4 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 25.4
Replay with same day's form
Titans 1% · Bills 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2024 games · Titans · Bills

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