luckadjusted

Week 7 2024 · October 20, 2024

Titans at Bills, Week 7 2024: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Titans 34–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Bills were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 11:01 left): the Bills converted 3rd & 12, worth 11 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Tennessee Titans 10
Buffalo Bills 34

October 20, 2024 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −9.5

Luck index +1 Bills about even · −1 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 0, Bills win 10.

  1. 1 TEN 12 BUF 16
  2. 2 TEN 15 BUF 24
  3. 3 TEN 24 BUF 38
  4. 4 TEN 3 BUF 20
  5. 5 TEN 0 BUF 20
  6. 6 TEN 7 BUF 31
  7. 7 TEN 7 BUF 34
  8. 8 TEN 7 BUF 37
  9. 9 TEN 6 BUF 41
  10. 10 TEN 28 BUF 69

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 1% of them, Bills 99%. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+0.0%
Titans by 9–160.0%
Titans by 1–80.6%
Level after regulation0.1%
Bills by 1–82.5%
Bills by 9–169.4%
Bills by 17+87.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 24. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bills by 22.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 25 yds made · 100% expected
  • T. Bass, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • T. Bass, 30 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:45 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expectedA. Cooper dropped a catchable passDrops · 12 drops on 204 catchable balls before this +8% TEN BUF: Punt
2 Q1 7:34 The Titans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +7% TEN TEN: Field goal
3 Q2 8:38 The Titans fumbled and the Bills recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% BUF TEN: Punt
4 Q2 4:54 The Titans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% TEN TEN: Punt
5 Q2 0:01 The Titans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% TEN TEN: Turnover on downs
6 Q3 12:59 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +9% BUF TEN: Punt
7 Q3 11:01 The Bills converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +11% BUF BUF: Touchdown
8 Q3 9:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Rasul Douglas), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 32 flags in 5159 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +7% TEN TEN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • L'Jarius Sneed (TEN CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Chidobe Awuzie (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Treylon Burks (TEN WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 0% · Bills 100%

Final margin
Bills by 24
Luck in points
1.1 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 22.9
Replay with same day's form
Titans 1% · Bills 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2024 games · Titans · Bills

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