Week 7 2024 · October 20, 2024
Texans at Packers, Week 7 2024: who deserved to win?
The Packers beat the Texans 24–22, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: drops alone were worth 17 points of win probability to the Texans.
Before kickoff the Packers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:44 left): R. Doubs dropped a catchable pass, worth 18 points of win probability to the Texans.
Final
 Houston Texans | 22 |
|---|---|
 Green Bay Packers | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Packers lucky · −26 Texans
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Texans win 3, Packers win 7.
- 1 HOU 30 GB 13
- 2 HOU 17 GB 10
- 3 HOU 20 GB 17
- 4 HOU 21 GB 23
- 5 HOU 31 GB 35
- 6 HOU 34 GB 41
- 7 HOU 20 GB 31
- 8 HOU 21 GB 38
- 9 HOU 6 GB 27
- 10 HOU 17 GB 44
Your call
Did the Packers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Texans win 25% of them, Packers 75%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Texans by 17+ | 3.5% |
| Texans by 9–16 | 6.6% |
| Texans by 1–8 | 14.9% |
| Level after regulation | 4.0% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 24.8% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 20.2% |
| Packers by 17+ | 26.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- K. Fairbairn, 23 yds made · 99% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 52 yds made · 70% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 35 yds made · 94% expected
- B. McManus, 45 yds made · 83% expected
Penalties: Texans 5 for 55 yards, Packers 8 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Packers (Arron Mosby), 10 yards | +1% HOU +0.9 pts |
| Q1 12:02 | Defensive Offside on the Packers (Preston Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% HOU +0.5 pts |
| Q1 11:51 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Packers (Kingsley Enagbare), 15 yards | +4% HOU +1.1 pts |
| Q1 11:48 | Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Texans, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% GB 0.0 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans, 15 yards | +6% GB +1.8 pts |
| Q2 9:08 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Eric Murray), 30 yards | +11% GB +1.6 pts |
| Q2 2:20 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Packers (Lukas Van Ness), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% HOU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 1:13 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Keisean Nixon), 1 yard | 0% HOU 0.0 pts |
| Q3 7:21 | Defensive Offside on the Packers (Kenny Clark), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% HOU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 14:07 | Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% GB +0.8 pts |
| Q4 10:10 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Packers (Romeo Doubs), 10 yards | +2% HOU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 6:12 | Defensive Offside on the Packers (Kingsley Enagbare), 4 yards · pre-snap | +4% HOU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 0:27 | Defensive Offside on the Texans (Will Anderson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +7% GB +0.3 pts |
Texans penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Packers’ chance of winning
As low as 24% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 1:09 | The Packers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +8% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 12:41 | The Packers fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% HOU | GB: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 9:08 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Eric Murray), 30 yardsJudgment calls · 14 flags in 3407 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 | +11% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 2:42 | The Texans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +10% HOU | HOU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 1:52 | The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +8% GB | HOU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 1:44 | R. Doubs dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 162 catchable balls before this | +18% HOU | GB: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 1:34 | The Packers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +7% GB | GB: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:03 | B. McManus made a 45-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him, 56 of 81 from 45+ before | +17% GB | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Devonte Wyatt (GB DE), out · 0.2 pts
- Kamari Lassiter (HOU CB), out · 1.0 pts
- Nico Collins (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Jimmie Ward (HOU FS), out · 0.4 pts
- Henry To'oTo'o (HOU LB), out · 0.3 pts
- Azeez Al-Shaair (HOU LB), out · 0.3 pts
- Christian Harris (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Mario Edwards (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Texans 18% · Packers 82%
- Final margin
- Packers by 2
- Luck in points
- 0.1 for the Packers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Packers by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Texans 25% · Packers 75% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2024 games · 
Texans · 
Packers
More from Week 7 2024
- Broncos at Saints DEN 33–10 · replay 69% for the winner
- Patriots vs Jaguars JAX 32–16 · replay 94% for the winner
- Bengals at Browns CIN 21–14 · replay 99% for the winner
- Lions at Vikings DET 31–29 · replay 48% for the winner
- Dolphins at Colts IND 16–10 · replay 77% for the winner
- Eagles at Giants PHI 28–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Seahawks at Falcons SEA 34–14 · replay 57% for the winner
- Titans at Bills BUF 34–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Panthers at Commanders WAS 40–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Raiders at Rams LA 20–15 · replay 90% for the winner
- Chiefs at 49ers KC 28–18 · replay 71% for the winner
- Jets at Steelers PIT 37–15 · replay 65% for the winner
- Ravens at Buccaneers BAL 41–31 · replay 54% for the winner
- Chargers at Cardinals ARI 17–15 · replay 72% for the winner