luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 7 2024 · October 17, 2024

Broncos at Saints, Week 7 2024: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Saints 33–10, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 13:19 left): Defensive Offside on the Broncos (D.J. Jones), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 9 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

Denver Broncos 33
New Orleans Saints 10

October 17, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Broncos −2.5

Luck index +31 Broncos lucky · −31 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 7, Saints win 3.

  1. 1 DEN 37 NO 13
  2. 2 DEN 26 NO 7
  3. 3 DEN 30 NO 16
  4. 4 DEN 18 NO 7
  5. 5 DEN 18 NO 10
  6. 6 DEN 19 NO 14
  7. 7 DEN 15 NO 13
  8. 8 DEN 10 NO 13
  9. 9 DEN 23 NO 31
  10. 10 DEN 6 NO 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 69% of them, Saints 31%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+20.5%
Broncos by 9–1621.7%
Broncos by 1–826.0%
Level after regulation4.3%
Saints by 1–815.4%
Saints by 9–168.3%
Saints by 17+3.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.4 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Broncos by 23, without the luck Broncos by 13.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 46 yds made · 78% expected
  • W. Lutz, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • B. Grupe, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • W. Lutz, 52 yds made · 68% expected
  • W. Lutz, 38 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Broncos 7 for 47 yards, Saints 5 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:16 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Paulson Adebo), 5 yards 0% DEN +0.3 pts
Q2 13:27 Delay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% NO +1.0 pts
Q2 13:19 Defensive Offside on the Broncos (D.J. Jones), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +9% NO +2.6 pts
Q2 13:10 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Broncos (Baron Browning), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN 0.0 pts
Q3 3:56 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Foster Moreau), 10 yards 0% DEN +1.0 pts
Q3 3:30 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.2 pts
Q3 2:55 Illegal Use of Hands on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% DEN +1.6 pts
Q3 1:03 Illegal Formation on the Saints (J.T. Gray), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.3 pts
Q3 0:56 Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Javonte Williams), 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% NO +1.9 pts
Q4 10:34 Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Nate Adkins), 7 yards, wiping out the play 0% NO +2.8 pts
Q4 6:42 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Broncos, 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% NO +1.8 pts
Q4 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos, 10 yards 0% NO +1.3 pts

Broncos penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:28 The Saints got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +6% NO NO: Punt
2 Q1 3:46 The Saints fumbled and the Broncos recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% DEN NO: Punt
3 Q1 2:19 The Broncos converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +3% DEN DEN: Field goal
4 Q2 13:19 Defensive Offside on the Broncos (D.J. Jones), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 4 flags in 3060 snaps before, position avg 1 per 528 +9% NO NO: Punt
5 Q2 12:27 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +3% DEN NO: Punt
6 Q2 0:55 The Broncos got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +5% DEN DEN: Field goal
7 Q2 0:49 The Broncos converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +3% DEN DEN: Field goal
8 Q2 0:21 W. Lutz made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 31 of 46 from 45+ before +5% DEN DEN: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Derek Carr (NO QB), out, replaced by s.rattler · 5.3 pts
  • Chris Olave (NO WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Rashid Shaheed (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Erik McCoy (NO C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Cesar Ruiz (NO C), out · 0.5 pts
  • Cesar Ruiz (NO G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Will Harris (NO FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Pete Werner (NO LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Lucas Patrick (NO G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Alex Palczewski (DEN T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Alex Singleton (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Josh Reynolds (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Luke Wattenberg (DEN C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 100% · Saints 0%

Final margin
Broncos by 23
Luck in points
9.4 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 13.6
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 69% · Saints 31% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2024 games · Broncos · Saints

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