2024 season · final
Denver Broncos, 2024: game by game
The Broncos went 10–7 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.3 wins. Luck added 2.7: the 2nd-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–6.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.0.
Every game
How often the Broncos win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Seahawks | L 20–26 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 2 | vs Steelers | L 6–13 | 34% | −34 |
| Week 3 | @ Buccaneers | W 26–7 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 4 | @ Jets | W 10–9 | 32% | +68 |
| Week 5 | vs Raiders | W 34–18 | 45% | +55 |
| Week 6 | vs Chargers | L 16–23 | 45% | −45 |
| Week 7 | @ Saints | W 33–10 | 69% | +31 |
| Week 8 | vs Panthers | W 28–14 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 9 | @ Ravens | L 10–41 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 10 | @ Chiefs | L 14–16 | 19% | −19 |
| Week 11 | vs Falcons | W 38–6 | 60% | +40 |
| Week 12 | @ Raiders | W 29–19 | 29% | +71 |
| Week 13 | vs Browns | W 41–32 | 68% | +32 |
| Week 15 | vs Colts | W 31–13 | 44% | +56 |
| Week 16 | @ Chargers | L 27–34 | 23% | −23 |
| Week 17 | @ Bengals | L 24–30 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 18 | vs Chiefs | W 38–0 | 97% | +3 |
| Wild Card | @ Bills | L 7–31 | 4% | −4 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Broncos’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +0.59 | +25.4 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.18 | −1.7 |
| Drops | +0.18 | +1.4 |
| Rest | −0.06 | −2.0 |
| Kicks | −0.19 | +12.6 |
| Judgment calls | −0.27 | −16.8 |