Week 13 2024 · December 2, 2024
Browns at Broncos, Week 13 2024: who deserved to win?
The Broncos beat the Browns 41–32, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Browns.
Before kickoff the Broncos were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:59 left): Return touchdown by the Broncos, worth 40 points of win probability to the Broncos.
Final
 Cleveland Browns | 32 |
|---|---|
 Denver Broncos | 41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 Broncos lucky · −32 Browns
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Browns win 3, Broncos win 7.
- 1 CLE 40 DEN 20
- 2 CLE 27 DEN 19
- 3 CLE 23 DEN 20
- 4 CLE 27 DEN 29
- 5 CLE 24 DEN 29
- 6 CLE 23 DEN 31
- 7 CLE 10 DEN 22
- 8 CLE 10 DEN 27
- 9 CLE 3 DEN 25
- 10 CLE 15 DEN 46
Your call
Did the Broncos earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Browns win 32% of them, Broncos 68%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 9.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Browns by 17+ | 5.9% |
| Browns by 9–16 | 9.7% |
| Browns by 1–8 | 15.2% |
| Level after regulation | 2.9% |
| Broncos by 1–8 | 21.6% |
| Broncos by 9–16 | 19.2% |
| Broncos by 17+ | 25.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- D. Hopkins, 47 yds missed · 77% expected
- D. Hopkins, 45 yds made · 80% expected
- W. Lutz, 36 yds made · 92% expected
- W. Lutz, 27 yds made · 97% expected
Penalties: Browns 5 for 46 yards, Broncos 4 for 57 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 13:26 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Martin Emerson), 17 yards | +4% DEN +1.4 pts |
| Q2 4:11 | Defensive Holding on the Browns (Grant Delpit), 0 yards | 0% DEN 0.0 pts |
| Q3 13:37 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 19 yards | +2% DEN +1.3 pts |
| Q3 11:17 | Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DEN +0.8 pts |
| Q3 10:27 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos, 6 yards | +1% CLE +0.5 pts |
| Q3 9:50 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% CLE +2.6 pts |
| Q3 1:55 | Delay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CLE +0.5 pts |
| Q4 10:24 | Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% DEN +0.7 pts |
| Q4 0:50 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Kris Abrams-Draine), 36 yards | +6% CLE +3.4 pts |
Browns penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Broncos’ chance of winning
As low as 35% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:21 | D. Hopkins missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him, 37 of 54 from 45+ before | +11% DEN | CLE: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 9:03 | The Broncos converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +9% DEN | DEN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 1:52 | The Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the BroncosSpecial teams | +37% DEN | CLE: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 9:50 | The Browns’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedOffensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +10% CLE | CLE: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 11:11 | The Browns converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +12% CLE | CLE: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 10:31 | The Browns got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws | +9% CLE | CLE: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 2:04 | The Browns converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +10% CLE | CLE: Opp touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 1:59 | The Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the BroncosSpecial teams | +40% DEN | CLE: Turnover |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Riley Moss (DEN CB), out · 0.6 pts
- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Dawand Jones (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Cedric Tillman (CLE WR), out · 0.3 pts
- Charley Hughlett (CLE LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Browns 2% · Broncos 98%
- Final margin
- Broncos by 9
- Luck in points
- 1.3 for the Browns
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Broncos by 10.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Browns 32% · Broncos 68% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2024 games · 
Browns · 
Broncos
More from Week 13 2024
- Bears at Lions DET 23–20 · replay 86% for the winner
- Giants at Cowboys DAL 27–20 · replay 70% for the winner
- Dolphins at Packers GB 30–17 · replay 89% for the winner
- Raiders at Chiefs KC 19–17 · replay 52% for the winner
- Cardinals at Vikings MIN 23–22 · replay 56% for the winner
- Texans at Jaguars HOU 23–20 · replay 91% for the winner
- Colts at Patriots IND 25–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Chargers at Falcons LAC 17–13 · replay 40% for the winner
- Steelers at Bengals PIT 44–38 · replay 69% for the winner
- Seahawks at Jets SEA 26–21 · replay 90% for the winner
- Titans at Commanders WAS 42–19 · replay 100% for the winner
- Rams at Saints LA 21–14 · replay 84% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Panthers TB 26–23 · replay 55% for the winner
- Eagles at Ravens PHI 24–19 · replay 53% for the winner
- 49ers at Bills BUF 35–10 · replay 98% for the winner