luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2024 · November 29, 2024

Raiders at Chiefs, Week 13 2024: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Raiders 19–17, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Chiefs win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 41 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 84% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 2:21 left): D. Carlson missed a 58-yard field goal, worth 27 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 17
Kansas City Chiefs 19

November 29, 2024 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −13.5

Luck index +48 Chiefs lucky · −48 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 5, Chiefs win 5.

  1. 1 LV 37 KC 13
  2. 2 LV 37 KC 21
  3. 3 LV 40 KC 28
  4. 4 LV 30 KC 23
  5. 5 LV 40 KC 37
  6. 6 LV 14 KC 17
  7. 7 LV 3 KC 10
  8. 8 LV 31 KC 41
  9. 9 LV 22 KC 38
  10. 10 LV 19 KC 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 48% of them, Chiefs 52%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+12.2%
Raiders by 9–1613.8%
Raiders by 1–820.3%
Level after regulation4.9%
Chiefs by 1–820.9%
Chiefs by 9–1614.4%
Chiefs by 17+13.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.9 points to the Chiefs: the final margin was Chiefs by 2, without the luck Raiders by 11.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Wright, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Carlson, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Carlson, 56 yds missed · 64% expected
  • M. Wright, 59 yds missed · 58% expected
  • M. Wright, 42 yds made · 84% expected
  • D. Carlson, 55 yds missed · 65% expected
  • M. Wright, 35 yds made · 92% expected
  • M. Wright, 32 yds made · 94% expected
  • D. Carlson, 58 yds missed · 61% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Raiders 9 for 101 yards, Chiefs 7 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Jack Jones), 20 yards +5% KC +1.6 pts
Q1 8:08 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +4% KC +1.6 pts
Q1 6:50 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +4% KC +0.6 pts
Q1 4:03 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards +1% LV +1.1 pts
Q1 3:00 False Start on the Chiefs (Mecole Hardman), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.8 pts
Q1 2:37 False Start on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LV +0.6 pts
Q2 13:37 False Start on the Raiders (Brock Bowers), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KC +0.8 pts
Q2 6:50 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Raiders, 5 yards +6% KC +0.8 pts
Q2 1:06 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Raiders, 5 yards +1% KC +0.5 pts
Q3 6:32 Defensive Offside on the Chiefs (Chris Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.4 pts
Q3 2:16 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% KC +2.1 pts
Q4 12:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Decamerion Richardson), 26 yards +10% KC +1.9 pts
Q4 12:41 False Start on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.7 pts
Q4 12:37 Illegal Formation on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.5 pts
Q4 9:53 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Raiders (Justin Shorter), 10 yards +2% KC +0.9 pts
Q4 1:56 Defensive Offside on the Chiefs (Chris Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% LV +0.1 pts

Raiders penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 6:00 D. Carlson missed a 56-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 47 of 59 from 45+ before +11% KC LV: Punt
2 Q2 4:12 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% KC KC: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:03 M. Wright missed a 59-yard field goalKicks · 58% expected for him, 13 of 17 from 45+ before +7% LV KC: Field goal
4 Q3 0:25 D. Hopkins dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 203 catchable balls before this +8% LV KC: Punt
5 Q4 12:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Decamerion Richardson), 26 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 231 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +10% KC KC: Field goal
6 Q4 10:36 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +9% LV KC: Field goal
7 Q4 2:21 The game turned hereD. Carlson missed a 58-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 47 of 61 from 45+ before +27% KC LV: Turnover
8 Q4 0:15 The Raiders fumbled and the Chiefs recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +22% KC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaylen Watson (KC CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Harrison Butker (KC K), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Spencer Shrader (KC K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Nate Hobbs (LV CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Christian Wilkins (LV DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jakorian Bennett (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Alexander Mattison (LV RB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 95% · Chiefs 5%

Final margin
Chiefs by 2
Luck in points
13.9 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 11.9
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 48% · Chiefs 52% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2024 games · Raiders · Chiefs

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