luckadjusted

Week 13 2024 · December 1, 2024

Texans at Jaguars, Week 13 2024: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Jaguars 23–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 8 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Texans were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 12:24 left): the Jaguars converted 3rd & 10, worth 20 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Houston Texans 23
Jacksonville Jaguars 20

December 1, 2024 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Texans −3.5

Luck index +19 Texans about even · −19 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 8, Jaguars win 2.

  1. 1 HOU 34 JAX 7
  2. 2 HOU 31 JAX 10
  3. 3 HOU 30 JAX 13
  4. 4 HOU 27 JAX 13
  5. 5 HOU 17 JAX 6
  6. 6 HOU 13 JAX 5
  7. 7 HOU 33 JAX 28
  8. 8 HOU 24 JAX 22
  9. 9 HOU 17 JAX 20
  10. 10 HOU 17 JAX 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 81% of them, Jaguars 19%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+33.0%
Texans by 9–1620.4%
Texans by 1–826.0%
Level after regulation2.0%
Jaguars by 1–811.8%
Jaguars by 9–165.1%
Jaguars by 17+1.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 1.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 53 yds made · 66% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Little, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. Little, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Little, 55 yds missed · 64% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:25 The Texans converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +6% HOU HOU: Punt
2 Q1 9:03 Offensive Offside on the Texans (Cade Stover), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 504 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +10% JAX JAX: Punt
3 Q1 6:05 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +10% JAX JAX: Punt
4 Q2 15:00 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedJ. Mixon dropped a catchable passDrops · 8 drops on 160 catchable balls before this +6% JAX HOU: Field goal
5 Q2 13:33 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedThe Jaguars threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% HOU JAX: Field goal
6 Q2 1:12 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Brenton Strange), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 921 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +9% HOU HOU: End of half
7 Q3 12:24 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +20% JAX JAX: Field goal
8 Q4 2:00 The Texans converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +7% HOU HOU: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian Kirk (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Stefon Diggs (HOU WR), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Jalen Pitre (HOU FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Xavier Hutchinson (HOU WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kenyon Green (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 38% · Jaguars 62%

Final margin
Texans by 3
Luck in points
1.8 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 1.2
Replay with same day's form
Texans 81% · Jaguars 19% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2024 games · Texans · Jaguars

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