luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2024 · December 1, 2024

Texans at Jaguars, Week 13 2024: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Jaguars 23–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Texans were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 12:24 left): the Jaguars converted 3rd & 10, worth 10 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Houston Texans 23
Jacksonville Jaguars 20

December 1, 2024 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Texans −3.5

Luck index +9 Texans about even · −9 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 9, Jaguars win 1.

  1. 1 HOU 30 JAX 0
  2. 2 HOU 23 JAX 0
  3. 3 HOU 30 JAX 10
  4. 4 HOU 22 JAX 5
  5. 5 HOU 23 JAX 9
  6. 6 HOU 30 JAX 20
  7. 7 HOU 13 JAX 6
  8. 8 HOU 29 JAX 24
  9. 9 HOU 12 JAX 10
  10. 10 HOU 22 JAX 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 91% of them, Jaguars 9%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+50.6%
Texans by 9–1621.6%
Texans by 1–817.5%
Level after regulation1.6%
Jaguars by 1–85.9%
Jaguars by 9–162.1%
Jaguars by 17+0.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.7 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Texans by 3, without the luck Texans by 4.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 53 yds made · 66% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Little, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. Little, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Little, 55 yds missed · 65% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 3 for 15 yards, Jaguars 4 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:03 Offensive Offside on the Texans (Cade Stover), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +10% JAX +1.9 pts
Q2 9:55 Illegal Contact on the Jaguars (Montaric Brown), 5 yards +1% HOU +1.0 pts
Q2 2:09 Encroachment on the Texans (Tommy Togiai), 6 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.6 pts
Q2 1:12 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Brenton Strange), 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% HOU +1.7 pts
Q3 11:28 Delay of Game on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% HOU +0.7 pts
Q3 6:25 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Luke Farrell), 10 yards +3% HOU +0.9 pts
Q4 6:12 False Start on the Texans (M.J. Stewart), 4 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.5 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:03 Offensive Offside on the Texans (Cade Stover), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 504 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +10% JAX JAX: Punt
2 Q1 6:05 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +7% JAX JAX: Punt
3 Q2 1:12 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Brenton Strange), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 921 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +9% HOU HOU: End of half
4 Q2 1:01 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +5% HOU JAX: Field goal
5 Q3 12:24 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +10% JAX JAX: Field goal
6 Q3 8:04 The Jaguars fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% JAX JAX: Punt
7 Q4 14:02 C. Little missed a 55-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 5 of 5 from 45+ before +6% HOU JAX: Touchdown
8 Q4 2:00 The Texans converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +7% HOU HOU: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian Kirk (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Stefon Diggs (HOU WR), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Jalen Pitre (HOU FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Xavier Hutchinson (HOU WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kenyon Green (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 64% · Jaguars 36%

Final margin
Texans by 3
Luck in points
1.7 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 4.7
Replay with same day's form
Texans 91% · Jaguars 9% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2024 games · Texans · Jaguars

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