2024 season · final
Jacksonville Jaguars, 2024: game by game
The Jaguars went 4–13 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.9 wins. Luck cost them 0.9: the 11th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–10.
Every game
How often the Jaguars win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Dolphins | L 17–20 | 21% | −21 |
| Week 2 | vs Browns | L 13–18 | 84% | −84 |
| Week 3 | @ Bills | L 10–47 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 4 | @ Texans | L 20–24 | 12% | −12 |
| Week 5 | vs Colts | W 37–34 | 14% | +86 |
| Week 6 | vs Bears | L 16–35 | 7% | −8 |
| Week 7 | vs Patriots | W 32–16 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 8 | vs Packers | L 27–30 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 9 | @ Eagles | L 23–28 | 38% | −38 |
| Week 10 | vs Vikings | L 7–12 | 22% | −22 |
| Week 11 | @ Lions | L 6–52 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 13 | vs Texans | L 20–23 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 14 | @ Titans | W 10–6 | 72% | +28 |
| Week 15 | vs Jets | L 25–32 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 16 | @ Raiders | L 14–19 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 17 | vs Titans | W 20–13 | 72% | +28 |
| Week 18 | @ Colts | L 23–26 | 13% | −13 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Jaguars’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.24 | +11.0 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.18 | −2.9 |
| Rest | +0.02 | +0.8 |
| Drops | −0.10 | −3.5 |
| Judgment calls | −0.13 | +0.3 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.24 | −5.7 |
| Injuries | −0.50 | −19.0 |