2024 season · final

Jacksonville Jaguars, 2024: game by game

The Jaguars went 4–13 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 5.4 wins. Luck cost them 1.4: the 11th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–10.

Every game

How often the Jaguars win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Dolphins	L 17–20	20%	−20
Week 2	vs Browns	L 13–18	91%	−91
Week 3	@ Bills	L 10–47	1%	−1
Week 4	@ Texans	L 20–24	24%	−24
Week 5	vs Colts	W 37–34	26%	+74
Week 6	@ Bears	L 16–35	7%	−7
Week 7	vs Patriots	W 32–16	88%	+12
Week 8	vs Packers	L 27–30	11%	−11
Week 9	@ Eagles	L 23–28	40%	−40
Week 10	vs Vikings	L 7–12	16%	−16
Week 11	@ Lions	L 6–52	0%	0
Week 13	vs Texans	L 20–23	19%	−19
Week 14	@ Titans	W 10–6	72%	+28
Week 15	vs Jets	L 25–32	26%	−26
Week 16	@ Raiders	L 14–19	20%	−20
Week 17	vs Titans	W 20–13	61%	+39
Week 18	@ Colts	L 23–26	12%	−12

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −20 @ MIA

Wk 2 −91 vs CLE

Wk 3 −1 @ BUF

Wk 4 −24 @ HOU

Wk 5 +74 vs IND

Wk 6 −7 @ CHI

Wk 7 +12 vs NE

Wk 8 −11 vs GB

Wk 9 −40 @ PHI

Wk 10 −16 vs MIN

Wk 11 0 @ DET

Wk 13 −19 vs HOU

Wk 14 +28 @ TEN

Wk 15 −26 vs NYJ

Wk 16 −20 @ LV

Wk 17 +39 vs TEN

Wk 18 −12 @ IND

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Jaguars’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Kicks	+10.6	+0.62
Rest	+0.8	+0.05
Fumble bounces	−1.6	−0.09
Drops	−2.0	−0.12
Judgment calls	−2.4	−0.14
3rd & 4th downs	−6.9	−0.40
Injuries	−25.4	−1.49