luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Jaguars in one-score games

The Jaguars are 2–2 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 6–3 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 2.5 of those 4. Since 2019: 23–38 in 61 one-score games, 24.3 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Jaguars win in replays (regular season).

SeasonOne-score recordReplay wins in those gamesClose-game luckOverall record
20262–22.5 of 4 −0.56–2
20256–33.0 of 9 +3.013–4
20243–103.9 of 13 −0.94–13
20233–43.5 of 7 −0.59–8
20224–65.2 of 10 −1.29–8
20212–42.6 of 6 −0.63–14
20201–62.0 of 7 −1.01–15
20192–31.6 of 5 +0.46–10

2026 one-score games

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 2 @ Broncos L 13–20 40% −40
Week 4 @ Bengals W 22–17 72% +28
Week 5 vs Eagles W 19–17 84% +16
Week 6 vs Texans L 31–34 51% −51

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Jacksonville Jaguars, every season