One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Jaguars in one-score games

The Jaguars are 0–1 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 6–3 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 0.4 of those 1. Since 2019: 21–37 in 58 one-score games, 22.6 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Jaguars win in replays (regular season).

2026 −0.4 0–1

2025 +2.9 6–3

2024 −1.4 3–10

2023 −0.6 3–4

2022 −1.0 4–6

2021 −0.5 2–4

2020 −1.0 1–6

2019 +0.4 2–3

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	0–1	0.4 of 1	−0.4	1–1
2025	6–3	3.1 of 9	+2.9	13–4
2024	3–10	4.4 of 13	−1.4	4–13
2023	3–4	3.6 of 7	−0.6	9–8
2022	4–6	5.0 of 10	−1.0	9–8
2021	2–4	2.5 of 6	−0.5	3–14
2020	1–6	2.0 of 7	−1.0	1–15
2019	2–3	1.6 of 5	+0.4	6–10

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 2	@ Broncos	L 13–20	40%	−40

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Jacksonville Jaguars, every season