2021 season · final

Jacksonville Jaguars, 2021: game by game

The Jaguars went 3–14 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 5.4 wins. Luck cost them 2.4: the unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–4.

Every game

How often the Jaguars win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Texans	L 21–37	17%	−17
Week 2	vs Broncos	L 13–23	12%	−12
Week 3	vs Cardinals	L 19–31	8%	−8
Week 4	@ Bengals	L 21–24	56%	−56
Week 5	vs Titans	L 19–37	35%	−35
Week 6	vs Dolphins	W 23–20	65%	+35
Week 8	@ Seahawks	L 7–31	38%	−38
Week 9	vs Bills	W 9–6	43%	+57
Week 10	@ Colts	L 17–23	33%	−33
Week 11	vs 49ers	L 10–30	9%	−9
Week 12	vs Falcons	L 14–21	14%	−14
Week 13	@ Rams	L 7–37	3%	−3
Week 14	@ Titans	L 0–20	10%	−10
Week 15	vs Texans	L 16–30	69%	−69
Week 16	@ Jets	L 21–26	46%	−46
Week 17	@ Patriots	L 10–50	4%	−4
Week 18	vs Colts	W 26–11	80%	+20

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −17 @ HOU

Wk 2 −12 vs DEN

Wk 3 −8 vs ARI

Wk 4 −56 @ CIN

Wk 5 −35 vs TEN

Wk 6 +35 vs MIA

Wk 8 −38 @ SEA

Wk 9 +57 vs BUF

Wk 10 −33 @ IND

Wk 11 −9 vs SF

Wk 12 −14 vs ATL

Wk 13 −3 @ LA

Wk 14 −10 @ TEN

Wk 15 −69 vs HOU

Wk 16 −46 @ NYJ

Wk 17 −4 @ NE

Wk 18 +20 vs IND

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Jaguars’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Injuries	+0.48	+15.7
Kicks	+0.26	−16.2
Judgment calls	+0.26	+5.1
3rd & 4th downs	−0.51	−5.6
Fumble bounces	−0.56	−25.8