luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 6 2021 · October 17, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Dolphins vs Jaguars, Week 6 2021: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Dolphins 23–20, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:01 left): M. Wright made a 53-yard field goal, worth 19 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Miami Dolphins 20
Jacksonville Jaguars 23

October 17, 2021 · Tottenham Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −2.5

Luck index +35 Jaguars lucky · −35 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 3, Jaguars win 7.

  1. 1 MIA 37 JAX 19
  2. 2 MIA 18 JAX 10
  3. 3 MIA 19 JAX 16
  4. 4 MIA 29 JAX 31
  5. 5 MIA 13 JAX 17
  6. 6 MIA 23 JAX 30
  7. 7 MIA 10 JAX 20
  8. 8 MIA 20 JAX 34
  9. 9 MIA 16 JAX 34
  10. 10 MIA 10 JAX 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 35% of them, Jaguars 65%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+4.8%
Dolphins by 9–1610.8%
Dolphins by 1–818.6%
Level after regulation2.5%
Jaguars by 1–825.4%
Jaguars by 9–1620.2%
Jaguars by 17+17.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Jaguars by 3, without the luck Jaguars by 1.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Wright, 40 yds made · 87% expected
  • J. Sanders, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Sanders, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Sanders, 58 yds missed · 59% expected
  • M. Wright, 54 yds made · 62% expected
  • M. Wright, 53 yds made · 64% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 7 for 55 yards, Jaguars 8 for 54 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:43 False Start on the Dolphins (Jaylen Waddle), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.7 pts
Q1 12:46 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% JAX +0.7 pts
Q1 0:47 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Cethan Carter), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% JAX +1.9 pts
Q2 14:15 Clipping on the Jaguars, 12 yards +2% MIA +1.3 pts
Q2 9:20 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIA +0.8 pts
Q2 4:13 Face Mask on the Jaguars (Luke Farrell), 14 yards, wiping out the play +14% MIA +4.0 pts
Q2 2:43 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIA +0.5 pts
Q3 14:22 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% MIA +0.7 pts
Q3 13:29 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins (Jevon Holland), 15 yards +4% JAX +0.9 pts
Q3 9:54 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% JAX +0.6 pts
Q3 8:04 Offensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Mack Hollins), 10 yards, wiping out the play +15% JAX +2.7 pts
Q4 11:03 Taunting on the Jaguars (Rayshawn Jenkins), 3 yards +2% MIA +0.7 pts
Q4 9:26 False Start on the Jaguars (Chris Manhertz), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIA +0.7 pts
Q4 6:48 Delay of Game on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.6 pts
Q4 1:42 False Start on the Jaguars (Chris Manhertz), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIA +0.4 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 21% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 4:13 Face Mask on the Jaguars (Luke Farrell), 14 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 111 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +14% MIA MIA: Punt
2 Q2 0:05 J. Sanders missed a 58-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 26 of 36 from 45+ before +13% JAX MIA: Punt
3 Q3 8:04 Offensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Mack Hollins), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1219 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +15% JAX JAX: Turnover
4 Q4 14:21 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +12% MIA JAX: Punt
5 Q4 4:45 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +16% JAX JAX: Field goal
6 Q4 3:45 M. Wright made a 54-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 2 of 3 from 45+ before +13% JAX JAX: Field goal
7 Q4 1:49 The Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +18% JAX –
8 Q4 0:01 M. Wright made a 53-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 3 of 4 from 45+ before +19% JAX –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyson Campbell (JAX CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • A.J. Cann (JAX OL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Myles Jack (JAX LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • A.J. Cann (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brandon Linder (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Lambo (JAX K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Xavien Howard (MIA CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • Byron Jones (MIA CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • DeVante Parker (MIA WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Preston Williams (MIA WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Deiter (MIA C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 35% · Jaguars 65%

Final margin
Jaguars by 3
Luck in points
1.3 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 1.7
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 35% · Jaguars 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2021 games · Dolphins · Jaguars

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