luckadjusted

Week 6 2021 · October 17, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Dolphins vs Jaguars, Week 6 2021: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Dolphins 23–20 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:01 left): M. Wright made 53-yard field goal, worth 19 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Miami Dolphins 20
Jacksonville Jaguars 23

October 17, 2021 · Tottenham Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −2.5

Luck index +38 Jaguars lucky · −38 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 4, Jaguars win 6.

  1. 1 MIA 34 JAX 13
  2. 2 MIA 17 JAX 6
  3. 3 MIA 23 JAX 16
  4. 4 MIA 16 JAX 13
  5. 5 MIA 24 JAX 27
  6. 6 MIA 30 JAX 35
  7. 7 MIA 20 JAX 29
  8. 8 MIA 21 JAX 34
  9. 9 MIA 10 JAX 27
  10. 10 MIA 6 JAX 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 38% of them, Jaguars 62%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+5.4%
Dolphins by 9–1610.2%
Dolphins by 1–819.7%
Level after regulation2.5%
Jaguars by 1–825.4%
Jaguars by 9–1619.7%
Jaguars by 17+17.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jaguars by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jaguars by 1.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Wright, 40 yds made · 86% expected
  • J. Sanders, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Sanders, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Sanders, 58 yds missed · 56% expected
  • M. Wright, 54 yds made · 62% expected
  • M. Wright, 53 yds made · 64% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 21% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 4:13 Face Mask on the Jaguars (Luke Farrell), 14 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 111 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +15% MIA MIA: Punt
2 Q2 0:05 J. Sanders missed 58-yard field goalKicks · 56% expected for him, 26 of 36 from 45+ before +12% JAX MIA: Punt
3 Q3 8:04 Offensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Mack Hollins), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1219 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +15% JAX JAX: Turnover
4 Q4 14:21 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +12% MIA JAX: Punt
5 Q4 4:45 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +17% JAX JAX: Field goal
6 Q4 3:45 M. Wright made 54-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 2 of 3 from 45+ before +13% JAX JAX: Field goal
7 Q4 1:49 The Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +18% JAX –
8 Q4 0:01 M. Wright made 53-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 3 of 4 from 45+ before +19% JAX –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyson Campbell (JAX CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • A.J. Cann (JAX OL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Myles Jack (JAX LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • A.J. Cann (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brandon Linder (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Lambo (JAX K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Xavien Howard (MIA CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • Byron Jones (MIA CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • DeVante Parker (MIA WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Preston Williams (MIA WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Deiter (MIA C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 40% · Jaguars 60%

Final margin
Jaguars by 3
Luck in points
1.9 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 38% · Jaguars 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2021 games · Dolphins · Jaguars

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