luckadjusted

Week 6 2021 · October 17, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Chargers at Ravens, Week 6 2021: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Chargers 34–6 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 59% favorites.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 6
Baltimore Ravens 34

October 17, 2021 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −3

Luck index +33 Ravens lucky · −33 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 3, Ravens win 7.

  1. 1 LAC 27 BAL 10
  2. 2 LAC 30 BAL 22
  3. 3 LAC 20 BAL 17
  4. 4 LAC 28 BAL 30
  5. 5 LAC 19 BAL 24
  6. 6 LAC 24 BAL 31
  7. 7 LAC 17 BAL 28
  8. 8 LAC 13 BAL 28
  9. 9 LAC 9 BAL 29
  10. 10 LAC 0 BAL 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 33% of them, Ravens 67%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+5.9%
Chargers by 9–169.2%
Chargers by 1–817.2%
Level after regulation2.4%
Ravens by 1–825.1%
Ravens by 9–1620.0%
Ravens by 17+20.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 28. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 17.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 52 yds made · 67% expected
  • J. Tucker, 39 yds made · 87% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:38 The Chargers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% LAC LAC: Punt
2 Q1 12:00 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +4% BAL LAC: Punt
3 Q1 9:55 The Ravens converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +4% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q1 4:09 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +4% BAL LAC: Punt
5 Q2 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Josh Oliver), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 196 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +2% LAC LAC: Punt
6 Q2 7:08 J. Tucker made 52-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 24 of 29 from 45+ before +2% BAL BAL: Turnover
7 Q2 4:04 The Chargers missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +3% BAL LAC: End of half
8 Q2 0:24 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +2% LAC BAL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marcus Peters (BAL CB), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Sammy Watkins (BAL WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Derek Wolfe (BAL DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • J.K. Dobbins (BAL RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Kenneth Murray (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Nasir Adderley (LAC FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Nasir Adderley (LAC S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Justin Jones (LAC DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Oday Aboushi (LAC G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 0% · Ravens 100%

Final margin
Ravens by 28
Luck in points
10.4 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 17.6
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 33% · Ravens 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2021 games · Chargers · Ravens

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