luckadjusted

Week 6 2021 · October 17, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Texans at Colts, Week 6 2021: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Texans 31–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 9 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 2.2 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Colts were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:59 left): the Colts converted 3rd & 3, worth 13 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Houston Texans 3
Indianapolis Colts 31

October 17, 2021 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −10.5

Luck index +12 Colts about even · −12 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 1, Colts win 9.

  1. 1 HOU 20 IND 13
  2. 2 HOU 36 IND 38
  3. 3 HOU 27 IND 32
  4. 4 HOU 20 IND 27
  5. 5 HOU 9 IND 19
  6. 6 HOU 10 IND 23
  7. 7 HOU 14 IND 31
  8. 8 HOU 31 IND 51
  9. 9 HOU 6 IND 30
  10. 10 HOU 6 IND 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 12% of them, Colts 88%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+1.2%
Texans by 9–163.1%
Texans by 1–88.0%
Level after regulation1.6%
Colts by 1–818.8%
Colts by 9–1622.9%
Colts by 17+44.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 28. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 18.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 41 yds made · 84% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 31 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:15 The Texans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +5% HOU HOU: Punt
2 Q1 7:52 The Texans converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% HOU HOU: Punt
3 Q1 5:57 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% IND HOU: Punt
4 Q1 1:59 The Colts converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +13% IND IND: Touchdown
5 Q1 0:31 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% IND HOU: Punt
6 Q2 6:24 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +4% IND HOU: Field goal
7 Q2 0:33 Illegal Shift on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +6% HOU IND: End of half
8 Q2 0:18 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% IND HOU: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Quenton Nelson (IND G), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Quenton Nelson (IND G/C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • T.J. Carrie (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Rodrigo Blankenship (IND K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Deshaun Watson (HOU QB), out, replaced by d.mills · 8.3 pts
  • Laremy Tunsil (HOU T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Marcus Cannon (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Justin Britt (HOU C), out · 0.5 pts
  • Charles Omenihu (HOU DE), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 0% · Colts 100%

Final margin
Colts by 28
Luck in points
9.6 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 18.4
Replay with same day's form
Texans 12% · Colts 88% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2021 games · Texans · Colts

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