Week 6 2021 · October 17, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Packers at Bears, Week 6 2021: who deserved to win?
The Packers beat the Bears 24–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10.
Before kickoff the Packers were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:57 left): Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 16 points of win probability to the Packers.
Final
 Green Bay Packers | 24 |
|---|---|
 Chicago Bears | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Packers about even · −9 Bears
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Packers win 9, Bears win 1.
- 1 GB 45 CHI 13
- 2 GB 37 CHI 13
- 3 GB 30 CHI 10
- 4 GB 27 CHI 10
- 5 GB 20 CHI 6
- 6 GB 24 CHI 13
- 7 GB 17 CHI 9
- 8 GB 20 CHI 14
- 9 GB 26 CHI 24
- 10 GB 7 CHI 13
Your call
Did the Packers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Packers win 91% of them, Bears 9%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Packers by 17+ | 48.7% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 23.0% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 17.4% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 5.7% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 2.6% |
| Bears by 17+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Packers 3 for 51 yards, Bears 7 for 54 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:54 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bears (Robert Quinn), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GB +0.7 pts |
| Q1 7:32 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Isaac Yiadom), 26 yards | +3% CHI +2.1 pts |
| Q1 4:43 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Bears (Marqui Christian), 10 yards | +1% GB +0.9 pts |
| Q1 1:13 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Bears (Mario Edwards), 15 yards | +4% GB +1.6 pts |
| Q2 5:00 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Equanimeous St. Brown), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +14% CHI +4.5 pts |
| Q2 0:25 | Delay of Game on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GB +0.6 pts |
| Q3 10:01 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Jaylon Johnson), 4 yards | +3% GB +1.3 pts |
| Q4 10:57 | Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +16% GB +3.3 pts |
| Q4 4:30 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Kylin Hill), 15 yards | +1% CHI +1.4 pts |
| Q4 4:09 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Bears, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +5% GB +1.4 pts |
Packers penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Bears’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:10 | The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +4% CHI | GB: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 8:09 | The Bears converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +6% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 1:13 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Bears (Mario Edwards), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 799 snaps before, position avg 1 per 273 | +4% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 5:00 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Equanimeous St. Brown), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 348 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 | +14% CHI | CHI: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 0:25 | The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedDelay of Game on the Bears, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% GB | CHI: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 13:48 | The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +5% GB | CHI: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 10:57 | Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +16% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 4:09 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Bears, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% GB | GB: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Germain Ifedi (CHI T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Germain Ifedi (CHI OL), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- David Montgomery (CHI RB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Duke Shelley (CHI CB), out · 0.3 pts
- Duke Shelley (CHI DB), out · 0.2 pts
- Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Kevin King (GB CB), out · 0.4 pts
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Za'Darius Smith (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Packers 100% · Bears 0%
- Final margin
- Packers by 10
- Luck in points
- 1.9 for the Bears
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Packers by 11.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Packers 91% · Bears 9% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2021 games · 
Packers · 
Bears
More from Week 6 2021
- Buccaneers at Eagles TB 28–22 · replay 84% for the winner
- Dolphins vs Jaguars JAX 23–20 · replay 65% for the winner
- Bengals at Lions CIN 34–11 · replay 90% for the winner
- Texans at Colts IND 31–3 · replay 89% for the winner
- Chiefs at Washington KC 31–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Chargers at Ravens BAL 34–6 · replay 70% for the winner
- Rams at Giants LA 38–11 · replay 97% for the winner
- Vikings at Panthers MIN 34–28 · replay 84% for the winner
- Cardinals at Browns ARI 37–14 · replay 58% for the winner
- Cowboys at Patriots DAL 35–29 · replay 80% for the winner
- Raiders at Broncos LV 34–24 · replay 43% for the winner
- Seahawks at Steelers PIT 23–20 · replay 70% for the winner
- Bills at Titans TEN 34–31 · replay 56% for the winner