luckadjusted

Week 6 2021 · October 18, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bills at Titans, Week 6 2021: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Bills 34–31, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Titans win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:22 left): the Bills were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 40 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Buffalo Bills 31
Tennessee Titans 34

October 18, 2021 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Bills −6

Luck index +43 Titans lucky · −43 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 4, Titans win 6.

  1. 1 BUF 44 TEN 24
  2. 2 BUF 27 TEN 17
  3. 3 BUF 29 TEN 23
  4. 4 BUF 26 TEN 24
  5. 5 BUF 34 TEN 37
  6. 6 BUF 29 TEN 34
  7. 7 BUF 20 TEN 28
  8. 8 BUF 22 TEN 34
  9. 9 BUF 14 TEN 31
  10. 10 BUF 14 TEN 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 43% of them, Titans 57%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+7.3%
Bills by 9–1612.4%
Bills by 1–821.0%
Level after regulation2.4%
Titans by 1–826.2%
Titans by 9–1615.2%
Titans by 17+15.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Titans by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 9.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • T. Bass, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • R. Bullock, 43 yds made · 83% expected
  • T. Bass, 52 yds made · 69% expected
  • R. Bullock, 38 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 21% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:12 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +13% BUF TEN: Touchdown
2 Q2 7:02 The Titans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +12% TEN TEN: Field goal
3 Q2 0:47 The Bills converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedFalse Start on the Bills, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +11% BUF BUF: Touchdown
4 Q3 6:28 The Titans converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +12% TEN TEN: Touchdown
5 Q3 1:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans, 39 yardsJudgment calls +17% BUF BUF: Touchdown
6 Q4 11:41 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% BUF BUF: Punt
7 Q4 4:35 The Titans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +16% TEN TEN: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:22 The Bills were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +40% TEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Brett Kern (TEN P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 10% · Titans 90%

Final margin
Titans by 3
Luck in points
6.4 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 9.4
Replay with same day's form
Bills 43% · Titans 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2021 games · Bills · Titans

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