luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 6 2021 · October 17, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cardinals at Browns, Week 6 2021: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Browns 37–14, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Cardinals win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 17 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Browns were 59% favorites.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 37
Cleveland Browns 14

October 17, 2021 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −3

Luck index +42 Cardinals lucky · −42 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 6, Browns win 4.

  1. 1 ARI 31 CLE 7
  2. 2 ARI 31 CLE 17
  3. 3 ARI 34 CLE 24
  4. 4 ARI 23 CLE 16
  5. 5 ARI 27 CLE 23
  6. 6 ARI 13 CLE 11
  7. 7 ARI 13 CLE 16
  8. 8 ARI 20 CLE 27
  9. 9 ARI 21 CLE 34
  10. 10 ARI 13 CLE 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 58% of them, Browns 42%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+14.1%
Cardinals by 9–1616.7%
Cardinals by 1–826.0%
Level after regulation2.6%
Browns by 1–820.1%
Browns by 9–1614.1%
Browns by 17+6.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +22.2 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Cardinals by 23, without the luck Cardinals by 0.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 36 yds made · 88% expected
  • M. Prater, 51 yds made · 56% expected
  • M. Prater, 33 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 5 for 45 yards, Browns 9 for 88 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:19 Illegal Formation on the Browns, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% ARI +2.6 pts
Q1 7:43 Defensive Offside on the Cardinals (J.J. Watt), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.2 pts
Q1 6:44 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Donovan Peoples-Jones), 10 yards +3% ARI +1.3 pts
Q1 6:17 Face Mask on the Cardinals, 15 yards +5% CLE +1.8 pts
Q1 2:11 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 8 yards +1% ARI +1.1 pts
Q1 1:32 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 24 yards +5% ARI +2.6 pts
Q1 1:26 Face Mask on the Browns (Malik McDowell), 7 yards +1% ARI +1.0 pts
Q1 0:19 Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns (Malik McDowell), 4 yards +2% ARI +1.2 pts
Q1 0:11 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% CLE +3.0 pts
Q1 0:11 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.8 pts
Q2 13:06 Encroachment on the Browns (Jadeveon Clowney), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.2 pts
Q3 9:55 Offensive Holding on the Browns (David Njoku), 10 yards +3% ARI +1.7 pts
Q4 10:56 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (DeAndre Hopkins), 10 yards 0% CLE +1.1 pts
Q4 10:09 Roughing the Passer on the Browns (Malik Jackson), 15 yards +1% ARI +1.2 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:19 Illegal Formation on the Browns, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +7% ARI ARI: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:42 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +7% ARI ARI: Touchdown
3 Q1 10:39 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% ARI ARI: Touchdown
4 Q1 8:40 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +7% ARI ARI: Touchdown
5 Q1 4:34 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +6% ARI CLE: Turnover
6 Q1 0:11 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsFalse Start on the Cardinals, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% CLE CLE: Turnover
7 Q2 14:56 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +5% ARI ARI: Touchdown
8 Q2 9:29 M. Prater made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 56% expected for him, 20 of 32 from 45+ before +5% ARI ARI: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jarvis Landry (CLE WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Jack Conklin (CLE T), out · 1.0 pts
  • M.J. Stewart (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Nick Chubb (CLE RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jacob Phillips (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Zach Allen (ARI DL), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Zach Allen (ARI DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Chandler Jones (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Rodney Hudson (ARI C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Justin Murray (ARI OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Maxx Williams (ARI TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 52% · Browns 48%

Final margin
Cardinals by 23
Luck in points
22.2 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 0.8
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 58% · Browns 42% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2021 games · Cardinals · Browns

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