luckadjusted

Week 6 2021 · October 17, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cardinals at Browns, Week 6 2021: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Browns 37–14, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Cardinals win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 9.4 points to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Browns were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:42 left): the Cardinals converted 3rd & 6, worth 13 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 37
Cleveland Browns 14

October 17, 2021 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −3

Luck index +42 Cardinals lucky · −42 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 6, Browns win 4.

  1. 1 ARI 31 CLE 7
  2. 2 ARI 31 CLE 16
  3. 3 ARI 21 CLE 10
  4. 4 ARI 31 CLE 24
  5. 5 ARI 21 CLE 17
  6. 6 ARI 22 CLE 20
  7. 7 ARI 17 CLE 19
  8. 8 ARI 9 CLE 15
  9. 9 ARI 14 CLE 26
  10. 10 ARI 14 CLE 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 58% of them, Browns 42%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+14.3%
Cardinals by 9–1616.0%
Cardinals by 1–827.0%
Level after regulation2.4%
Browns by 1–821.3%
Browns by 9–1612.6%
Browns by 17+6.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cardinals by 23. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cardinals by 1.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 36 yds made · 87% expected
  • M. Prater, 51 yds made · 57% expected
  • M. Prater, 33 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:19 Illegal Formation on the Browns, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +7% ARI ARI: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:42 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +13% ARI ARI: Touchdown
3 Q1 10:39 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% ARI ARI: Touchdown
4 Q1 8:40 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +10% ARI ARI: Touchdown
5 Q1 4:34 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +7% ARI CLE: Turnover
6 Q1 0:11 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsFalse Start on the Cardinals, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% CLE CLE: Turnover
7 Q2 14:56 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +7% ARI ARI: Touchdown
8 Q3 6:20 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% ARI ARI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jarvis Landry (CLE WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Jack Conklin (CLE T), out · 1.0 pts
  • M.J. Stewart (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Nick Chubb (CLE RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jacob Phillips (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Zach Allen (ARI DL), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Zach Allen (ARI DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Chandler Jones (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Rodney Hudson (ARI C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Justin Murray (ARI OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Maxx Williams (ARI TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 53% · Browns 47%

Final margin
Cardinals by 23
Luck in points
21.9 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 58% · Browns 42% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2021 games · Cardinals · Browns

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