2021 season · final
Arizona Cardinals, 2021: game by game
The Cardinals went 11–6 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.6 wins. Luck added 0.4: the 10th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–4.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.1.
Every game
How often the Cardinals win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Titans | W 38–13 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 2 | vs Vikings | W 34–33 | 72% | +28 |
| Week 3 | @ Jaguars | W 31–19 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 4 | @ Rams | W 37–20 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 5 | vs 49ers | W 17–10 | 27% | +73 |
| Week 6 | @ Browns | W 37–14 | 58% | +42 |
| Week 7 | vs Texans | W 31–5 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 8 | vs Packers | L 21–24 | 67% | −67 |
| Week 9 | @ 49ers | W 31–17 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 10 | vs Panthers | L 10–34 | 47% | −47 |
| Week 11 | @ Seahawks | W 23–13 | 64% | +36 |
| Week 13 | @ Bears | W 33–22 | 56% | +44 |
| Week 14 | vs Rams | L 23–30 | 32% | −32 |
| Week 15 | @ Lions | L 12–30 | 82% | −82 |
| Week 16 | vs Colts | L 16–22 | 40% | −40 |
| Week 17 | @ Cowboys | W 25–22 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 18 | vs Seahawks | L 30–38 | 16% | −16 |
| Wild Card | @ Rams | L 11–34 | 5% | −5 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Cardinals’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.74 | +48.2 |
| Kicks | +0.30 | +2.8 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.29 | +8.4 |
| Rest | +0.04 | +1.4 |
| Injuries | −0.17 | −2.8 |
| Judgment calls | −0.28 | −6.0 |