luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 1 2021 · September 12, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cardinals at Titans, Week 1 2021: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Titans 38–13, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Titans were 57% favorites.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 38
Tennessee Titans 13

September 12, 2021 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −2.5

Luck index +24 Cardinals about even · −24 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 8, Titans win 2.

  1. 1 ARI 53 TEN 24
  2. 2 ARI 34 TEN 13
  3. 3 ARI 28 TEN 10
  4. 4 ARI 30 TEN 16
  5. 5 ARI 34 TEN 22
  6. 6 ARI 37 TEN 30
  7. 7 ARI 30 TEN 26
  8. 8 ARI 14 TEN 13
  9. 9 ARI 27 TEN 31
  10. 10 ARI 16 TEN 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 76% of them, Titans 24%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 25.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+31.2%
Cardinals by 9–1619.0%
Cardinals by 1–823.9%
Level after regulation2.4%
Titans by 1–812.6%
Titans by 9–167.6%
Titans by 17+3.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.9 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Cardinals by 25, without the luck Cardinals by 16.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • M. Badgley, 46 yds missed · 70% expected
  • M. Prater, 43 yds missed · 83% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 8 for 59 yards, Titans 7 for 57 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:55 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Rondale Moore), 10 yards +2% TEN +0.9 pts
Q1 11:02 False Start on the Cardinals (Demetrius Harris), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.7 pts
Q1 10:34 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% TEN +1.4 pts
Q1 8:30 False Start on the Cardinals (Darrell Daniels), 4 yards · pre-snap +4% TEN +0.6 pts
Q1 7:24 Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Julio Jones), 15 yards +2% ARI +1.4 pts
Q2 14:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Jackrabbit Jenkins), 17 yards +4% ARI +1.6 pts
Q2 12:20 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (A.J. Green), 10 yards 0% TEN +0.9 pts
Q2 2:00 Face Mask on the Titans (Jackrabbit Jenkins), 8 yards +1% ARI +0.9 pts
Q2 1:44 Defensive Offside on the Titans (Dane Cruikshank), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.4 pts
Q2 0:33 Defensive Offside on the Cardinals (Markus Golden), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.2 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Jonathan Ward), 10 yards +1% TEN +0.9 pts
Q3 10:40 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.8 pts
Q3 6:53 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.5 pts
Q4 5:59 Delay of Game on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.8 pts
Q4 2:07 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Caleb Farley), 2 yards 0% ARI +0.2 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:36 The Titans fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% ARI TEN: Punt
2 Q1 8:30 False Start on the Cardinals (Darrell Daniels), 4 yardsPre-snap flags · 6 flags in 736 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +4% TEN TEN: Punt
3 Q1 8:18 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% ARI ARI: Touchdown
4 Q1 3:10 The Titans converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +5% TEN TEN: Punt
5 Q2 14:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Jackrabbit Jenkins), 17 yardsJudgment calls · 14 flags in 1984 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +4% ARI ARI: Touchdown
6 Q2 8:43 The Titans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +5% TEN TEN: Touchdown
7 Q2 6:39 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +4% ARI ARI: Touchdown
8 Q2 0:19 M. Badgley missed a 46-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 6 of 16 from 45+ before +4% ARI TEN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • David Long (TEN LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 100% · Titans 0%

Final margin
Cardinals by 25
Luck in points
8.9 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 16.1
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 76% · Titans 24% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2021 games · Cardinals · Titans

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