luckadjusted

Week 1 2021 · September 12, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Packers vs Saints, Week 1 2021: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Packers 38–3 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 62% favorites.

Final

Green Bay Packers 3
New Orleans Saints 38

September 12, 2021 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Packers −4

Luck index +23 Saints about even · −23 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 2, Saints win 8.

  1. 1 GB 27 NO 14
  2. 2 GB 16 NO 13
  3. 3 GB 20 NO 22
  4. 4 GB 32 NO 37
  5. 5 GB 28 NO 35
  6. 6 GB 13 NO 22
  7. 7 GB 13 NO 26
  8. 8 GB 0 NO 16
  9. 9 GB 14 NO 34
  10. 10 GB 6 NO 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 23% of them, Saints 77%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 35.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+2.5%
Packers by 9–165.3%
Packers by 1–814.8%
Level after regulation3.6%
Saints by 1–826.8%
Saints by 9–1623.8%
Saints by 17+23.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 35. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 28.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Rosas, 44 yds made · 79% expected
  • M. Crosby, 39 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:11 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% GB NO: Field goal
2 Q1 11:05 A. Rosas made 44-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him +3% NO NO: Touchdown
3 Q1 8:53 The Packers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +4% GB GB: Punt
4 Q1 2:48 The Saints converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% NO NO: Touchdown
5 Q2 5:08 The Saints converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% NO NO: Touchdown
6 Q2 1:14 The Saints converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expectedNeutral Zone Infraction on the Packers (Dean Lowry), 2 yardsPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 1707 snaps before, position avg 1 per 266 +3% NO NO: Touchdown
7 Q3 12:03 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +3% NO GB: Turnover
8 Q3 11:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Malcolm Jenkins), 6 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 2437 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +5% GB GB: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Wil Lutz (NO K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • David Onyemata (NO DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tre'Quan Smith (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • David Bakhtiari (GB T), out (IR) · 1.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 0% · Saints 100%

Final margin
Saints by 35
Luck in points
7.0 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 28.0
Replay with same day's form
Packers 23% · Saints 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2021 games · Packers · Saints

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