luckadjusted

Week 1 2021 · September 13, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Ravens at Raiders, Week 1 2021: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Ravens 33–27 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Ravens had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 1.9 points to the Ravens.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 6:19 left): the Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 32 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final (OT)

Baltimore Ravens 27
Las Vegas Raiders 33

September 13, 2021 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −3

Luck index +28 Raiders lucky · −28 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 3, Raiders win 7.

  1. 1 BAL 32 LV 13
  2. 2 BAL 39 LV 30
  3. 3 BAL 33 LV 30
  4. 4 BAL 41 LV 43
  5. 5 BAL 34 LV 38
  6. 6 BAL 24 LV 31
  7. 7 BAL 24 LV 37
  8. 8 BAL 33 LV 49
  9. 9 BAL 10 LV 33
  10. 10 BAL 10 LV 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 28% of them, Raiders 72%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+6.4%
Ravens by 9–168.4%
Ravens by 1–813.0%
Level after regulation3.1%
Raiders by 1–824.1%
Raiders by 9–1618.3%
Raiders by 17+26.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Raiders by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Raiders by 2.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Tucker, 40 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Tucker, 47 yds made · 83% expected
  • D. Carlson, 55 yds made · 65% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 14% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:54 The Ravens converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +13% BAL BAL: Touchdown
2 Q3 12:33 Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Bryan Edwards), 4 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 259 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +11% BAL BAL: Field goal
3 Q4 4:06 The Raiders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +23% LV LV: Touchdown
4 Q4 0:42 J. Tucker made 47-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him, 20 of 24 from 45+ before +12% BAL BAL: End of game
5 Q4 0:07 D. Carlson made 55-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 8 of 12 from 45+ before +22% LV LV: Turnover
6 QOT 7:16 The Raiders converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +19% LV LV: Turnover
7 QOT 6:19 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +32% BAL LV: Touchdown
8 QOT 4:39 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedThe Ravens fumbled and the Raiders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% LV –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nevin Lawson (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Clelin Ferrell (LV DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Nicholas Morrow (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Marcus Peters (BAL CB), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Derek Wolfe (BAL DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Miles Boykin (BAL WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • J.K. Dobbins (BAL RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 33% · Raiders 67%

Final margin
Raiders by 6
Luck in points
4.0 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 2.0
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 28% · Raiders 72% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2021 games · Ravens · Raiders

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