luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2021 NFL season · September 9, 2021–September 13

Week 1 2021: who deserved to win

No winner of Week 1 was behind in the replays. The closest call: the 49ers won 41–33 and take 58% of replays.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 1 2021 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 8 of 9 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Steelers 23–16 @ Bills 32% 59% Coin flip
Saints 38–3 vs Packers 38% 76% Deserved
Texans 37–21 vs Jaguars 40% 83% Deserved
Eagles 32–6 @ Falcons 40% 70% Deserved
Dolphins 17–16 @ Patriots 40% 78% Deserved
Bengals 27–24 vs Vikings 41% 81% Deserved
Raiders 33–27 vs Ravens 41% 69% Deserved
Cardinals 38–13 @ Titans 43% 76% Deserved
Chargers 20–16 @ Washington 43% 89% Deserved

Week 1 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 49ers W 41–33 @ Lions 58% +42
2 Steelers W 23–16 @ Bills 59% +41
3 Seahawks W 28–16 @ Colts 63% +37
4 Raiders W 33–27 vs Ravens 69% +31
5 Eagles W 32–6 @ Falcons 70% +30
6 Chiefs W 33–29 vs Browns 71% +29
7 Broncos W 27–13 @ Giants 72% +28
8 Buccaneers W 31–29 vs Cowboys 75% +25
9 Cardinals W 38–13 @ Titans 76% +24
10 Saints W 38–3 vs Packers 76% +24
11 Dolphins W 17–16 @ Patriots 78% +22
12 Bengals W 27–24 vs Vikings 81% +19
13 Texans W 37–21 vs Jaguars 83% +17
14 Chargers W 20–16 @ Washington 89% +11
15 Rams W 34–14 vs Bears 89% +11
16 Panthers W 19–14 vs Jets 94% +6
17 Jets L 14–19 @ Panthers 6% −6
18 Bears L 14–34 @ Rams 11% −11
19 Washington L 16–20 vs Chargers 11% −11
20 Jaguars L 21–37 @ Texans 17% −17
21 Vikings L 24–27 @ Bengals 19% −19
22 Patriots L 16–17 vs Dolphins 22% −22
23 Packers L 3–38 @ Saints 24% −24
24 Titans L 13–38 vs Cardinals 24% −24
25 Cowboys L 29–31 @ Buccaneers 25% −25
26 Giants L 13–27 vs Broncos 28% −28
27 Browns L 29–33 @ Chiefs 29% −29
28 Falcons L 6–32 vs Eagles 30% −30
29 Ravens L 27–33 @ Raiders 31% −31
30 Colts L 16–28 vs Seahawks 37% −37
31 Bills L 16–23 vs Steelers 41% −41
32 Lions L 33–41 vs 49ers 42% −42