luckadjusted

2021 season · final

Miami Dolphins, 2021: game by game

The Dolphins went 9–8 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.6 wins. Luck added 2.4: the 3rd-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–3.

Every game

How often the Dolphins win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Patriots W 17–16 78% +22
Week 2 vs Bills L 0–35 5% −5
Week 3 @ Raiders L 28–31 8% −8
Week 4 vs Colts L 17–27 12% −12
Week 5 @ Buccaneers L 17–45 1% −1
Week 6 @ Jaguars L 20–23 38% −38
Week 7 vs Falcons L 28–30 47% −47
Week 8 @ Bills L 11–26 8% −8
Week 9 vs Texans W 17–9 58% +42
Week 10 vs Ravens W 22–10 36% +64
Week 11 @ Jets W 24–17 48% +52
Week 12 vs Panthers W 33–10 74% +26
Week 13 vs Giants W 20–9 71% +29
Week 15 vs Jets W 31–24 72% +28
Week 16 @ Saints W 20–3 70% +30
Week 17 @ Titans L 3–34 11% −11
Week 18 vs Patriots W 33–24 28% +72

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Dolphins’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Injuries+20.6+1.21
Judgment calls+14.5+0.85
Fumble bounces+12.6+0.74
Rest−1.4−0.08
3rd & 4th downs−6.3−0.37
Kicks−11.7−0.69