2021 season · final
Miami Dolphins, 2021: game by game
The Dolphins went 9–8 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.6 wins. Luck added 2.4: the 2nd-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–3.
Every game
How often the Dolphins win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Patriots | W 17–16 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 2 | vs Bills | L 0–35 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 3 | @ Raiders | L 28–31 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 4 | vs Colts | L 17–27 | 12% | −12 |
| Week 5 | @ Buccaneers | L 17–45 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 6 | vs Jaguars | L 20–23 | 35% | −35 |
| Week 7 | vs Falcons | L 28–30 | 45% | −45 |
| Week 8 | @ Bills | L 11–26 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 9 | vs Texans | W 17–9 | 59% | +41 |
| Week 10 | vs Ravens | W 22–10 | 35% | +65 |
| Week 11 | @ Jets | W 24–17 | 46% | +54 |
| Week 12 | vs Panthers | W 33–10 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 13 | vs Giants | W 20–9 | 74% | +26 |
| Week 15 | vs Jets | W 31–24 | 69% | +31 |
| Week 16 | @ Saints | W 20–3 | 67% | +33 |
| Week 17 | @ Titans | L 3–34 | 12% | −12 |
| Week 18 | vs Patriots | W 33–24 | 27% | +73 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Dolphins’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.58 | +16.2 |
| Injuries | +0.40 | +15.3 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.11 | −6.9 |
| Rest | −0.03 | −1.4 |
| Judgment calls | −0.06 | +7.4 |
| Kicks | −0.64 | −10.9 |