luckadjusted

Week 12 2021 · November 28, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Panthers at Dolphins, Week 12 2021: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Panthers 33–10 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q1, 13:02 left): the Dolphins converted 3rd & 11, worth 13 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Carolina Panthers 10
Miami Dolphins 33

November 28, 2021 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Panthers −1

Luck index +26 Dolphins lucky · −26 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 3, Dolphins win 7.

  1. 1 CAR 27 MIA 10
  2. 2 CAR 28 MIA 20
  3. 3 CAR 13 MIA 10
  4. 4 CAR 7 MIA 9
  5. 5 CAR 13 MIA 18
  6. 6 CAR 17 MIA 25
  7. 7 CAR 7 MIA 18
  8. 8 CAR 7 MIA 22
  9. 9 CAR 0 MIA 19
  10. 10 CAR 13 MIA 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 26% of them, Dolphins 74%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+2.8%
Panthers by 9–167.3%
Panthers by 1–814.7%
Level after regulation3.9%
Dolphins by 1–824.4%
Dolphins by 9–1622.4%
Dolphins by 17+24.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 23. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 13.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • J. Sanders, 46 yds made · 78% expected
  • J. Sanders, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:02 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +13% MIA MIA: Punt
2 Q1 11:01 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedThe Dolphins fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% CAR MIA: Punt
3 Q1 9:18 Blocked punt by the DolphinsSpecial teams +8% MIA MIA: Opp touchdown
4 Q1 8:24 The Panthers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +12% CAR CAR: Touchdown
5 Q1 6:09 The Panthers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +6% CAR CAR: Touchdown
6 Q1 2:28 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +8% CAR MIA: Punt
7 Q2 11:50 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 6 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% MIA MIA: Touchdown
8 Q2 9:06 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +6% MIA MIA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • DeVante Parker (MIA WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Greg Mancz (MIA C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brandon Jones (MIA SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Adam Shaheen (MIA TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Cameron Erving (CAR T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Matt Paradis (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • John Miller (CAR G), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 3% · Dolphins 97%

Final margin
Dolphins by 23
Luck in points
9.6 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 13.4
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 26% · Dolphins 74% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2021 games · Panthers · Dolphins

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