luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 12 2021 · November 28, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Panthers at Dolphins, Week 12 2021: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Panthers 33–10, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q1, 13:02 left): the Dolphins converted 3rd & 11, worth 11 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Carolina Panthers 10
Miami Dolphins 33

November 28, 2021 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Panthers −1

Luck index +24 Dolphins about even · −24 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 2, Dolphins win 8.

  1. 1 CAR 19 MIA 6
  2. 2 CAR 20 MIA 17
  3. 3 CAR 10 MIA 12
  4. 4 CAR 6 MIA 10
  5. 5 CAR 10 MIA 17
  6. 6 CAR 12 MIA 21
  7. 7 CAR 5 MIA 17
  8. 8 CAR 13 MIA 28
  9. 9 CAR 16 MIA 34
  10. 10 CAR 0 MIA 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 24% of them, Dolphins 76%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+2.7%
Panthers by 9–166.8%
Panthers by 1–814.2%
Level after regulation4.0%
Dolphins by 1–824.7%
Dolphins by 9–1622.6%
Dolphins by 17+25.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.6 points to the Dolphins: the final margin was Dolphins by 23, without the luck Dolphins by 16.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • J. Sanders, 46 yds made · 79% expected
  • J. Sanders, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 7 for 61 yards, Dolphins 5 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:35 Roughing the Passer on the Panthers (Haason Reddick), 15 yards +5% MIA +1.8 pts
Q2 11:50 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 6 yards, wiping out the play +6% MIA +1.7 pts
Q2 4:26 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.6 pts
Q2 1:44 False Start on the Dolphins (Albert Wilson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.3 pts
Q2 1:44 False Start on the Dolphins (Jaylen Waddle), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.2 pts
Q3 12:28 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIA +0.8 pts
Q3 6:42 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards +1% CAR +1.3 pts
Q3 6:37 Taunting on the Panthers (Haason Reddick), 15 yards +2% MIA +1.8 pts
Q3 4:11 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% MIA +2.6 pts
Q4 12:44 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards 0% MIA +1.3 pts
Q4 12:20 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.4 pts
Q4 3:16 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.5 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Dolphins penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:35 Roughing the Passer on the Panthers (Haason Reddick), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 2241 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +5% MIA MIA: Punt
2 Q1 13:02 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +11% MIA MIA: Punt
3 Q1 9:18 Blocked punt by the DolphinsSpecial teams +8% MIA MIA: Opp touchdown
4 Q1 8:24 The Panthers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +5% CAR CAR: Touchdown
5 Q1 2:28 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +5% CAR MIA: Punt
6 Q2 11:50 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 6 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% MIA MIA: Touchdown
7 Q2 9:06 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +5% MIA MIA: Touchdown
8 Q2 0:12 The Dolphins fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% CAR MIA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • DeVante Parker (MIA WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Greg Mancz (MIA C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brandon Jones (MIA SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Adam Shaheen (MIA TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Cameron Erving (CAR T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Matt Paradis (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • John Miller (CAR G), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 0% · Dolphins 100%

Final margin
Dolphins by 23
Luck in points
6.6 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 16.4
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 24% · Dolphins 76% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2021 games · Panthers · Dolphins

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