luckadjusted

Week 12 2021 · November 28, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Patriots, Week 12 2021: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Titans 36–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:07 left): N. Folk missed 53-yard field goal, worth 13 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 13
New England Patriots 36

November 28, 2021 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −7.5

Luck index +14 Patriots about even · −14 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 1, Patriots win 9.

  1. 1 TEN 30 NE 23
  2. 2 TEN 18 NE 20
  3. 3 TEN 35 NE 40
  4. 4 TEN 23 NE 30
  5. 5 TEN 15 NE 26
  6. 6 TEN 17 NE 31
  7. 7 TEN 17 NE 34
  8. 8 TEN 10 NE 30
  9. 9 TEN 19 NE 42
  10. 10 TEN 17 NE 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 14% of them, Patriots 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+1.4%
Titans by 9–163.5%
Titans by 1–89.2%
Level after regulation1.6%
Patriots by 1–818.6%
Patriots by 9–1623.1%
Patriots by 17+42.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Patriots by 23. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 6.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 22 yds made · 100% expected
  • R. Bullock, 44 yds missed · 79% expected
  • N. Folk, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • N. Folk, 44 yds made · 80% expected
  • N. Folk, 53 yds missed · 64% expected
  • N. Folk, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • N. Folk, 52 yds made · 65% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:29 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +7% NE TEN: Punt
2 Q2 14:28 The Titans missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +6% NE TEN: Missed field goal
3 Q2 6:11 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +6% NE TEN: Missed field goal
4 Q2 6:05 R. Bullock missed 44-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him +11% NE TEN: Turnover
5 Q2 0:48 The Titans converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +11% TEN TEN: Touchdown
6 Q2 0:07 N. Folk missed 53-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 18 of 24 from 45+ before +13% TEN NE: Field goal
7 Q3 5:12 The Patriots converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +11% NE NE: Touchdown
8 Q4 12:06 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +6% NE TEN: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jonathan Jones (NE CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • A.J. Brown (TEN WR), out (IR) · 1.4 pts
  • Julio Jones (TEN WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Greg Mabin (TEN CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Derrick Henry (TEN RB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Nate Davis (TEN G), out · 0.4 pts
  • David Long (TEN LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Rashaan Evans (TEN LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Bud Dupree (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Dane Cruikshank (TEN SS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 4% · Patriots 96%

Final margin
Patriots by 23
Luck in points
16.9 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 6.1
Replay with same day's form
Titans 14% · Patriots 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2021 games · Titans · Patriots

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