luckadjusted

Week 12 2021 · November 28, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Ravens, Week 12 2021: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Browns 16–10 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 3.1 points to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 13:04 left): the Browns converted 3rd & 4, worth 12 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 10
Baltimore Ravens 16

November 28, 2021 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −3

Luck index +21 Ravens about even · −21 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 2, Ravens win 8.

  1. 1 CLE 38 BAL 27
  2. 2 CLE 23 BAL 20
  3. 3 CLE 16 BAL 18
  4. 4 CLE 29 BAL 33
  5. 5 CLE 20 BAL 26
  6. 6 CLE 24 BAL 34
  7. 7 CLE 10 BAL 24
  8. 8 CLE 24 BAL 42
  9. 9 CLE 0 BAL 23
  10. 10 CLE 9 BAL 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 21% of them, Ravens 79%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+2.9%
Browns by 9–166.4%
Browns by 1–811.7%
Level after regulation2.0%
Ravens by 1–825.7%
Ravens by 9–1619.8%
Ravens by 17+31.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 1.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 46 yds missed · 80% expected
  • J. Tucker, 52 yds made · 75% expected
  • J. Tucker, 25 yds made · 100% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 46 yds made · 79% expected
  • J. Tucker, 49 yds made · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:04 The Browns converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +12% CLE CLE: Missed field goal
2 Q1 11:45 C. McLaughlin missed 46-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him, 12 of 18 from 45+ before +10% BAL CLE: Punt
3 Q1 5:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 20 flags in 2880 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +7% CLE CLE: Punt
4 Q2 0:53 The Browns fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% BAL CLE: Punt
5 Q3 11:34 The Ravens converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q3 9:56 The Ravens converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% BAL BAL: Touchdown
7 Q4 7:38 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +8% CLE BAL: Punt
8 Q4 2:57 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% CLE CLE: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Calais Campbell (BAL DE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Chris Westry (BAL CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • DeShon Elliott (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Rashard Higgins (CLE WR), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 51% · Ravens 49%

Final margin
Ravens by 6
Luck in points
4.8 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 1.2
Replay with same day's form
Browns 21% · Ravens 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2021 games · Browns · Ravens

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