Week 12 2021 · November 28, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Browns at Ravens, Week 12 2021: who deserved to win?
The Ravens beat the Browns 16–10, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.
Before kickoff the Ravens were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:53 left): the Browns fumbled and the Ravens recovered, worth 11 points of win probability to the Ravens.
Final
 Cleveland Browns | 10 |
|---|---|
 Baltimore Ravens | 16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 Ravens about even · −25 Browns
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Browns win 2, Ravens win 8.
- 1 CLE 42 BAL 25
- 2 CLE 24 BAL 21
- 3 CLE 30 BAL 33
- 4 CLE 14 BAL 19
- 5 CLE 24 BAL 32
- 6 CLE 13 BAL 23
- 7 CLE 6 BAL 20
- 8 CLE 3 BAL 20
- 9 CLE 27 BAL 48
- 10 CLE 3 BAL 30
Your call
Did the Ravens earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Browns win 25% of them, Ravens 75%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Browns by 17+ | 2.8% |
| Browns by 9–16 | 7.2% |
| Browns by 1–8 | 12.6% |
| Level after regulation | 2.5% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 25.2% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 20.0% |
| Ravens by 17+ | 29.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. McLaughlin, 46 yds missed · 80% expected
- J. Tucker, 52 yds made · 75% expected
- J. Tucker, 25 yds made · 99% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 46 yds made · 79% expected
- J. Tucker, 49 yds made · 79% expected
Penalties: Browns 5 for 45 yards, Ravens 5 for 54 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:35 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 14 yards | +7% CLE +1.9 pts |
| Q1 5:30 | Illegal Formation on the Browns (Donovan Peoples-Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% BAL +1.0 pts |
| Q1 3:11 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% BAL +2.7 pts |
| Q1 2:26 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns (Malik McDowell), 15 yards | +5% BAL +1.2 pts |
| Q2 3:56 | False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CLE +1.6 pts |
| Q2 0:32 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards | +2% CLE +1.4 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Defensive Holding on the Browns (Jordan Elliott), 5 yards | +1% BAL +0.8 pts |
| Q3 6:34 | Roughing the Passer on the Browns (Jadeveon Clowney), 15 yards | +3% BAL +0.9 pts |
| Q3 1:22 | Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Tyus Bowser), 15 yards | +6% CLE +1.1 pts |
| Q4 2:57 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% CLE +1.4 pts |
Browns penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Ravens’ chance of winning
As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:04 | The Browns converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +6% CLE | CLE: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 11:45 | C. McLaughlin missed a 46-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him, 12 of 18 from 45+ before | +10% BAL | CLE: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 5:35 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 20 flags in 2880 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 | +7% CLE | CLE: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 0:53 | The Browns fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +11% BAL | CLE: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 9:56 | The Ravens converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +7% BAL | BAL: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 1:22 | Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Tyus Bowser), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1926 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 | +6% CLE | CLE: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 7:38 | The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +7% CLE | BAL: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 2:57 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% CLE | CLE: Turnover on downs |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Calais Campbell (BAL DE), out · 0.9 pts
- Chris Westry (BAL CB), out · 0.4 pts
- DeShon Elliott (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Rashard Higgins (CLE WR), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Browns 71% · Ravens 29%
- Final margin
- Ravens by 6
- Luck in points
- 8.0 for the Ravens
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Browns by 2.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Browns 25% · Ravens 75% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2021 games · 
Browns · 
Ravens
More from Week 12 2021
- Bears at Lions CHI 16–14 · replay 79% for the winner
- Raiders at Cowboys LV 36–33 · replay 39% for the winner
- Bills at Saints BUF 31–6 · replay 98% for the winner
- Falcons at Jaguars ATL 21–14 · replay 86% for the winner
- Panthers at Dolphins MIA 33–10 · replay 76% for the winner
- Jets at Texans NYJ 21–14 · replay 87% for the winner
- Eagles at Giants NYG 13–7 · replay 19% for the winner
- Steelers at Bengals CIN 41–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Colts TB 38–31 · replay 91% for the winner
- Titans at Patriots NE 36–13 · replay 85% for the winner
- Chargers at Broncos DEN 28–13 · replay 36% for the winner
- Rams at Packers GB 36–28 · replay 23% for the winner
- Vikings at 49ers SF 34–26 · replay 85% for the winner
- Seahawks at Washington WAS 17–15 · replay 90% for the winner