luckadjusted

Week 12 2021 · November 25, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Raiders at Cowboys, Week 12 2021: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Cowboys 36–33, but the Cowboys played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 9.3 points to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 6:01 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Anthony Brown), 33 yards, worth 43 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 36
Dallas Cowboys 33

November 25, 2021 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −7

Luck index +63 Raiders very lucky · −63 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 4, Cowboys win 6.

  1. 1 LV 37 DAL 14
  2. 2 LV 37 DAL 23
  3. 3 LV 38 DAL 30
  4. 4 LV 30 DAL 27
  5. 5 LV 27 DAL 30
  6. 6 LV 34 DAL 40
  7. 7 LV 42 DAL 52
  8. 8 LV 39 DAL 52
  9. 9 LV 27 DAL 46
  10. 10 LV 26 DAL 55

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 37% of them, Cowboys 63%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+8.8%
Raiders by 9–1611.3%
Raiders by 1–816.7%
Level after regulation1.9%
Cowboys by 1–822.0%
Cowboys by 9–1616.3%
Cowboys by 17+23.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Raiders by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 18.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 59 yds missed · 60% expected
  • D. Carlson, 46 yds made · 80% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • D. Carlson, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • D. Carlson, 56 yds made · 65% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 45 yds made · 81% expected
  • D. Carlson, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 7:13 Return touchdown by the CowboysSpecial teams +17% DAL DAL: Touchdown
2 Q4 12:41 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +21% LV LV: Field goal
3 Q4 2:54 The Cowboys’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +14% DAL DAL: Field goal
4 Q4 1:57 D. Carlson made 56-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 15 of 20 from 45+ before +13% LV LV: End of game
5 Q4 0:24 G. Zuerlein made 45-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him, 25 of 38 from 45+ before +19% DAL DAL: Punt
6 QOT 8:57 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +13% LV DAL: Punt
7 QOT 6:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Anthony Brown), 33 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1489 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +43% LV LV: Field goal
8 QOT 4:31 D. Carlson made 29-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for himFalse Start on the Raiders, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsNeutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsNeutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +13% LV LV: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • CeeDee Lamb (DAL WR), out · 1.5 pts
  • Amari Cooper (DAL WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Randy Gregory (DAL DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Blake Jarwin (DAL TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 11% · Cowboys 89%

Final margin
Raiders by 3
Luck in points
21.1 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 18.1
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 37% · Cowboys 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2021 games · Raiders · Cowboys

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