luckadjusted

Week 12 2021 · November 25, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bills at Saints, Week 12 2021: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Saints 31–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10. The Saints had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 5.0 points to the Saints.

Before kickoff the Bills were 70% favorites.

Final

Buffalo Bills 31
New Orleans Saints 6

November 25, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Bills −7

Luck index +2 Bills about even · −2 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 10, Saints win 0.

  1. 1 BUF 38 NO 0
  2. 2 BUF 33 NO 3
  3. 3 BUF 29 NO 3
  4. 4 BUF 40 NO 17
  5. 5 BUF 31 NO 12
  6. 6 BUF 23 NO 7
  7. 7 BUF 33 NO 20
  8. 8 BUF 33 NO 23
  9. 9 BUF 27 NO 20
  10. 10 BUF 23 NO 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 98% of them, Saints 2%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 25.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+75.7%
Bills by 9–1616.4%
Bills by 1–85.5%
Level after regulation0.7%
Saints by 1–81.3%
Saints by 9–160.3%
Saints by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 25. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bills by 17.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:10 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +6% BUF NO: Punt
2 Q1 0:32 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +6% NO BUF: Punt
3 Q2 12:51 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +6% BUF NO: Punt
4 Q2 11:37 The Bills converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +6% BUF BUF: Field goal
5 Q2 4:32 The Bills converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +4% BUF BUF: Turnover
6 Q2 1:51 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +5% BUF NO: End of half
7 Q2 0:22 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Bills, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% NO NO: End of half
8 Q3 13:51 The Bills converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% BUF BUF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jameis Winston (NO QB), out (IR), replaced by t.siemian · 4.8 pts
  • Ryan Ramczyk (NO T), out · 1.6 pts
  • Alvin Kamara (NO RB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Adam Trautman (NO TE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Andrus Peat (NO G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (NO DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Mark Ingram (NO RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Spencer Brown (BUF T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Star Lotulelei (BUF DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jon Feliciano (BUF G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Zack Moss (BUF RB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 100% · Saints 0%

Final margin
Bills by 25
Luck in points
7.6 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 17.4
Replay with same day's form
Bills 98% · Saints 2% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2021 games · Bills · Saints

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