Week 12 2021 · November 25, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Bears at Lions, Week 12 2021: who deserved to win?
The Bears beat the Lions 16–14, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.
Before kickoff the Bears were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:54 left): the Bears converted 3rd & 4, worth 20 points of win probability to the Bears.
Final
 Chicago Bears | 16 |
|---|---|
 Detroit Lions | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Bears about even · −21 Lions
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bears win 8, Lions win 2.
- 1 CHI 30 DET 3
- 2 CHI 20 DET 0
- 3 CHI 27 DET 10
- 4 CHI 27 DET 14
- 5 CHI 30 DET 20
- 6 CHI 13 DET 6
- 7 CHI 18 DET 13
- 8 CHI 21 DET 19
- 9 CHI 9 DET 13
- 10 CHI 16 DET 28
Your call
Did the Bears earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bears win 79% of them, Lions 21%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bears by 17+ | 29.3% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 20.6% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 28.4% |
| Level after regulation | 2.6% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 11.4% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 6.2% |
| Lions by 17+ | 1.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Santos, 28 yds made · 97% expected
- C. Santos, 43 yds made · 86% expected
- C. Santos, 53 yds missed · 69% expected
- C. Santos, 28 yds made · 97% expected
Penalties: Bears 5 for 50 yards, Lions 10 for 67 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:42 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bears (Robert Quinn), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% DET +0.4 pts |
| Q1 5:17 | False Start on the Lions, 2 yards · pre-snap | 0% CHI +0.7 pts |
| Q1 3:14 | Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards | +2% DET +0.9 pts |
| Q2 8:30 | False Start on the Lions (T.J. Hockenson), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CHI +0.6 pts |
| Q2 8:13 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards | +1% CHI +0.8 pts |
| Q2 7:50 | False Start on the Lions (Jamaal Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CHI +0.2 pts |
| Q2 1:47 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards | +3% CHI +0.6 pts |
| Q3 12:07 | Offensive Holding on the Bears (J.P. Holtz), 10 yards | +2% DET +0.9 pts |
| Q3 9:18 | Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% DET +2.1 pts |
| Q3 5:07 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Bears, 15 yards | +6% DET +1.8 pts |
| Q3 1:46 | Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CHI 0.0 pts |
| Q4 10:05 | False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CHI +0.7 pts |
| Q4 9:59 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards | +3% CHI +0.9 pts |
| Q4 9:35 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% CHI +1.4 pts |
| Q4 1:54 | Defensive Delay of Game on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% CHI +0.8 pts |
Bears penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Lions’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:33 | The Lions converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +6% DET | DET: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 2:28 | The Lions fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% CHI | DET: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 0:43 | The Bears fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% CHI | CHI: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 11:47 | The Bears converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +7% CHI | CHI: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q3 9:18 | Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% DET | DET: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 14:55 | The Bears converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +9% CHI | CHI: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 6:33 | The Bears converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +10% CHI | CHI: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 1:54 | The Bears converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedDefensive Delay of Game on the Lions, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +20% CHI | CHI: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Matt Nelson (DET T), out · 0.6 pts
- Frank Ragnow (DET C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Quintez Cephus (DET WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Halapoulivaati Vaitai (DET G), out · 0.3 pts
- Trey Flowers (DET LB), out · 0.3 pts
- Austin Seibert (DET K), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Romeo Okwara (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Germain Ifedi (CHI T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Allen Robinson (CHI WR), out · 0.7 pts
- Khalil Mack (CHI LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Duke Shelley (CHI CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bears 71% · Lions 29%
- Final margin
- Bears by 2
- Luck in points
- 0.8 for the Lions
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bears by 2.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Bears 79% · Lions 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2021 games · 
Bears · 
Lions
More from Week 12 2021
- Raiders at Cowboys LV 36–33 · replay 39% for the winner
- Bills at Saints BUF 31–6 · replay 98% for the winner
- Falcons at Jaguars ATL 21–14 · replay 86% for the winner
- Panthers at Dolphins MIA 33–10 · replay 76% for the winner
- Jets at Texans NYJ 21–14 · replay 87% for the winner
- Eagles at Giants NYG 13–7 · replay 19% for the winner
- Steelers at Bengals CIN 41–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Colts TB 38–31 · replay 91% for the winner
- Titans at Patriots NE 36–13 · replay 85% for the winner
- Chargers at Broncos DEN 28–13 · replay 36% for the winner
- Rams at Packers GB 36–28 · replay 23% for the winner
- Vikings at 49ers SF 34–26 · replay 85% for the winner
- Browns at Ravens BAL 16–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Seahawks at Washington WAS 17–15 · replay 90% for the winner