2021 season · final

Detroit Lions, 2021: game by game

The Lions went 3–13–1 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.7 wins. Luck cost them 1.2: the 6th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–6–1.

Every game

How often the Lions win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs 49ers	L 33–41	42%	−42
Week 2	@ Packers	L 17–35	8%	−8
Week 3	vs Ravens	L 17–19	51%	−51
Week 4	@ Bears	L 14–24	27%	−27
Week 5	@ Vikings	L 17–19	50%	−50
Week 6	vs Bengals	L 11–34	10%	−10
Week 7	@ Rams	L 19–28	13%	−13
Week 8	vs Eagles	L 6–44	2%	−2
Week 10	@ Steelers	T 16–16	65%	−15
Week 11	@ Browns	L 10–13	26%	−26
Week 12	vs Bears	L 14–16	21%	−21
Week 13	vs Vikings	W 29–27	22%	+78
Week 14	@ Broncos	L 10–38	9%	−9
Week 15	vs Cardinals	W 30–12	18%	+82
Week 16	@ Falcons	L 16–20	40%	−40
Week 17	@ Seahawks	L 29–51	14%	−14
Week 18	vs Packers	W 37–30	50%	+50

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −42 vs SF

Wk 2 −8 @ GB

Wk 3 −51 vs BAL

Wk 4 −27 @ CHI

Wk 5 −50 @ MIN

Wk 6 −10 vs CIN

Wk 7 −13 @ LA

Wk 8 −2 vs PHI

Wk 10 −15 @ PIT

Wk 11 −26 @ CLE

Wk 12 −21 vs CHI

Wk 13 +78 vs MIN

Wk 14 −9 @ DEN

Wk 15 +82 vs ARI

Wk 16 −40 @ ATL

Wk 17 −14 @ SEA

Wk 18 +50 vs GB

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Lions’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Judgment calls	+0.47	+7.9
Rest	+0.05	+2.0
3rd & 4th downs	−0.22	−16.5
Injuries	−0.30	−16.1
Fumble bounces	−0.45	−4.2
Kicks	−1.15	−6.4