2021 season · final

Detroit Lions, 2021: game by game

The Lions went 3–13–1 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.8 wins. Luck cost them 1.3: the 6th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–6–1.

Every game

How often the Lions win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs 49ers	L 33–41	43%	−43
Week 2	@ Packers	L 17–35	10%	−10
Week 3	vs Ravens	L 17–19	49%	−49
Week 4	@ Bears	L 14–24	28%	−28
Week 5	@ Vikings	L 17–19	49%	−49
Week 6	vs Bengals	L 11–34	11%	−11
Week 7	@ Rams	L 19–28	15%	−15
Week 8	vs Eagles	L 6–44	2%	−2
Week 10	@ Steelers	T 16–16	61%	−11
Week 11	@ Browns	L 10–13	30%	−30
Week 12	vs Bears	L 14–16	20%	−20
Week 13	vs Vikings	W 29–27	23%	+77
Week 14	@ Broncos	L 10–38	10%	−10
Week 15	vs Cardinals	W 30–12	20%	+80
Week 16	@ Falcons	L 16–20	40%	−40
Week 17	@ Seahawks	L 29–51	14%	−14
Week 18	vs Packers	W 37–30	53%	+47

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −43 vs SF

Wk 2 −10 @ GB

Wk 3 −49 vs BAL

Wk 4 −28 @ CHI

Wk 5 −49 @ MIN

Wk 6 −11 vs CIN

Wk 7 −15 @ LA

Wk 8 −2 vs PHI

Wk 10 −11 @ PIT

Wk 11 −30 @ CLE

Wk 12 −20 vs CHI

Wk 13 +77 vs MIN

Wk 14 −10 @ DEN

Wk 15 +80 vs ARI

Wk 16 −40 @ ATL

Wk 17 −14 @ SEA

Wk 18 +47 vs GB

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Lions’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Judgment calls	+19.2	+1.13
Rest	+2.0	+0.12
Fumble bounces	−3.1	−0.19
Kicks	−5.4	−0.32
3rd & 4th downs	−16.0	−0.94
Injuries	−21.5	−1.26