luckadjusted

Week 3 2021 · September 26, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Ravens at Lions, Week 3 2021: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Lions 19–17, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Ravens win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Ravens.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): J. Tucker made 66-yard field goal, worth 39 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 19
Detroit Lions 17

September 26, 2021 · Ford Field · Closing line: Ravens −7.5

Luck index +49 Ravens lucky · −49 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 5, Lions win 5.

  1. 1 BAL 41 DET 17
  2. 2 BAL 18 DET 3
  3. 3 BAL 23 DET 13
  4. 4 BAL 25 DET 20
  5. 5 BAL 31 DET 29
  6. 6 BAL 22 DET 24
  7. 7 BAL 23 DET 29
  8. 8 BAL 10 DET 20
  9. 9 BAL 7 DET 23
  10. 10 BAL 6 DET 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 51% of them, Lions 49%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+11.7%
Ravens by 9–1614.8%
Ravens by 1–821.7%
Level after regulation5.3%
Lions by 1–821.2%
Lions by 9–1614.3%
Lions by 17+11.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 7.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 49 yds missed · 80% expected
  • J. Tucker, 39 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Tucker, 50 yds made · 77% expected
  • J. Tucker, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • R. Santoso, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Tucker, 66 yds made · 56% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:57 J. Tucker missed 49-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him, 21 of 25 from 45+ before +11% DET BAL: Punt
2 Q2 12:59 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Lions, 7 yardsJudgment calls +8% BAL DET: Punt
3 Q2 8:03 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% BAL DET: Punt
4 Q2 3:21 The Ravens converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +8% BAL BAL: Touchdown
5 Q4 5:33 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +15% DET BAL: Field goal
6 Q4 0:35 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% DET BAL: Field goal
7 Q4 0:26 The Ravens converted 4th & 193rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +24% BAL BAL: Field goal
8 Q4 0:03 J. Tucker made 66-yard field goalKicks · 56% expected for him, 22 of 27 from 45+ before +39% BAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Taylor Decker (DET T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Jamie Collins (DET LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Trey Flowers (DET LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tyrell Crosby (DET OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kevin Strong (DET DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Austin Seibert (DET K), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Marcus Peters (BAL CB), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Derek Wolfe (BAL DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Brandon Williams (BAL DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Justin Houston (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Miles Boykin (BAL WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • J.K. Dobbins (BAL RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 86% · Lions 14%

Final margin
Ravens by 2
Luck in points
5.4 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 7.4
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 51% · Lions 49% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2021 games · Ravens · Lions

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