luckadjusted

Week 3 2021 · September 23, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Panthers at Texans, Week 3 2021: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Texans 24–9 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 3.7 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Panthers were 72% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:28 left): Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 12 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Carolina Panthers 24
Houston Texans 9

September 23, 2021 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Panthers −8

Luck index +25 Panthers lucky · −25 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 7, Texans win 3.

  1. 1 CAR 34 HOU 7
  2. 2 CAR 27 HOU 7
  3. 3 CAR 21 HOU 7
  4. 4 CAR 30 HOU 19
  5. 5 CAR 10 HOU 3
  6. 6 CAR 22 HOU 17
  7. 7 CAR 23 HOU 21
  8. 8 CAR 17 HOU 20
  9. 9 CAR 10 HOU 17
  10. 10 CAR 13 HOU 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 75% of them, Texans 25%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+23.6%
Panthers by 9–1622.8%
Panthers by 1–825.3%
Level after regulation3.6%
Texans by 1–814.1%
Texans by 9–167.2%
Texans by 17+3.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Panthers by 15. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Panthers by 7.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 21 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Slye, 53 yds made · 68% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:39 The Panthers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +9% CAR CAR: Touchdown
2 Q2 10:58 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +11% HOU CAR: Punt
3 Q2 4:11 The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Panthers, 5 yardsJudgment calls +9% HOU HOU: Punt
4 Q2 0:25 The Texans missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +7% CAR HOU: Punt
5 Q2 0:19 The Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% CAR CAR: Touchdown
6 Q3 11:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Donte Jackson), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1547 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +9% HOU HOU: Punt
7 Q3 10:51 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +6% CAR HOU: Punt
8 Q3 3:28 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% HOU HOU: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Deshaun Watson (HOU QB), out, replaced by d.mills · 7.9 pts
  • Justin Reid (HOU S), out · 0.5 pts
  • Justin Reid (HOU SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Terrance Mitchell (HOU CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ka'imi Fairbairn (HOU K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • A.J. Moore (HOU S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Yetur Gross-Matos (CAR DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Pat Elflein (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 100% · Texans 0%

Final margin
Panthers by 15
Luck in points
7.4 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 7.6
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 75% · Texans 25% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2021 games · Panthers · Texans

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