luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2021 · September 23, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Panthers at Texans, Week 3 2021: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Texans 24–9, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Panthers were 72% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:28 left): Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 12 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Carolina Panthers 24
Houston Texans 9

September 23, 2021 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Panthers −8

Luck index +24 Panthers about even · −24 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 8, Texans win 2.

  1. 1 CAR 37 HOU 10
  2. 2 CAR 34 HOU 14
  3. 3 CAR 27 HOU 10
  4. 4 CAR 20 HOU 7
  5. 5 CAR 20 HOU 10
  6. 6 CAR 20 HOU 13
  7. 7 CAR 31 HOU 27
  8. 8 CAR 24 HOU 23
  9. 9 CAR 17 HOU 20
  10. 10 CAR 16 HOU 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 76% of them, Texans 24%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+25.5%
Panthers by 9–1621.9%
Panthers by 1–824.2%
Level after regulation4.5%
Texans by 1–814.1%
Texans by 9–167.3%
Texans by 17+2.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.9 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Panthers by 15, without the luck Panthers by 8.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 21 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Slye, 53 yds made · 69% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 8 for 64 yards, Texans 7 for 51 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:42 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Pharaoh Brown), 10 yards +5% CAR +0.9 pts
Q1 1:18 Illegal Contact on the Texans (Eric Murray), 5 yards +2% CAR +0.5 pts
Q2 11:29 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.6 pts
Q2 10:47 Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Marquis Haynes), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.6 pts
Q2 8:41 Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Brian Burns), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.6 pts
Q2 8:16 Roughing the Passer on the Panthers (Daviyon Nixon), 15 yards +3% HOU +1.2 pts
Q2 6:55 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.4 pts
Q2 4:11 Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Panthers, 5 yards +2% HOU +0.5 pts
Q3 11:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Donte Jackson), 14 yards +9% HOU +2.1 pts
Q3 11:03 Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Bravvion Roy), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% HOU +0.7 pts
Q3 10:44 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CAR +0.5 pts
Q3 8:37 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Christian Kirksey), 15 yards +5% CAR +1.5 pts
Q3 4:28 Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Texans (Garret Wallow), 5 yards +1% CAR +0.5 pts
Q3 3:28 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% HOU +3.9 pts
Q3 0:43 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Eric Murray), 6 yards +2% CAR +0.6 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:39 The Panthers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% CAR CAR: Touchdown
2 Q2 10:58 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +11% HOU CAR: Punt
3 Q2 4:11 The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Panthers, 5 yardsJudgment calls +9% HOU HOU: Punt
4 Q2 1:58 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +6% HOU CAR: Punt
5 Q2 0:25 The Texans missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +7% CAR HOU: Punt
6 Q2 0:19 The Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% CAR CAR: Touchdown
7 Q3 11:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Donte Jackson), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1547 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +9% HOU HOU: Punt
8 Q3 3:28 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% HOU HOU: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Deshaun Watson (HOU QB), out, replaced by d.mills · 7.9 pts
  • Justin Reid (HOU S), out · 0.5 pts
  • Justin Reid (HOU SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Terrance Mitchell (HOU CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ka'imi Fairbairn (HOU K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • A.J. Moore (HOU S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Yetur Gross-Matos (CAR DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Pat Elflein (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 100% · Texans 0%

Final margin
Panthers by 15
Luck in points
6.9 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 8.1
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 76% · Texans 24% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2021 games · Panthers · Texans

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