luckadjusted

Week 3 2021 · September 26, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cardinals at Jaguars, Week 3 2021: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Jaguars 31–19, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cardinals win 9 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.7 points to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 72% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:02 left): M. Prater missed 68-yard field goal, worth 60 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 31
Jacksonville Jaguars 19

September 26, 2021 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Cardinals −8

Luck index +9 Cardinals about even · −9 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 9, Jaguars win 1.

  1. 1 ARI 38 JAX 7
  2. 2 ARI 34 JAX 10
  3. 3 ARI 37 JAX 17
  4. 4 ARI 33 JAX 17
  5. 5 ARI 34 JAX 20
  6. 6 ARI 38 JAX 27
  7. 7 ARI 21 JAX 13
  8. 8 ARI 31 JAX 27
  9. 9 ARI 20 JAX 17
  10. 10 ARI 29 JAX 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 91% of them, Jaguars 9%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+56.5%
Cardinals by 9–1619.7%
Cardinals by 1–814.9%
Level after regulation1.0%
Jaguars by 1–85.1%
Jaguars by 9–162.0%
Jaguars by 17+0.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cardinals by 12. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cardinals by 10.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 68 yds missed · 47% expected
  • M. Prater, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:25 False Start on the Cardinals (Tanner Vallejo), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 632 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +8% JAX JAX: Turnover
2 Q2 12:26 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +8% ARI JAX: Punt
3 Q2 4:32 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Maxx Williams), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1240 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +10% JAX JAX: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:02 M. Prater missed 68-yard field goalKicks · 47% expected for him, 19 of 29 from 45+ before +60% JAX ARI: Turnover
5 Q3 9:02 The Cardinals converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +7% ARI ARI: Field goal
6 Q3 0:35 Return touchdown by the CardinalsSpecial teams +36% ARI ARI: Opp touchdown
7 Q4 14:56 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Chris Manhertz), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1088 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +9% ARI ARI: Touchdown
8 Q4 11:19 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +8% ARI ARI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tre Herndon (JAX CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • C.J. Henderson (JAX CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Roy Robertson-Harris (JAX DT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kelvin Beachum (ARI OL), out · 0.5 pts
  • Kelvin Beachum (ARI T), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 92% · Jaguars 8%

Final margin
Cardinals by 12
Luck in points
1.2 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 10.8
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 91% · Jaguars 9% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2021 games · Cardinals · Jaguars

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