luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2021 · September 26, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Seahawks at Vikings, Week 3 2021: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Seahawks 30–17, but the replays lean toward the Seahawks: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:32 left): the Vikings converted 3rd & 13, worth 14 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 17
Minnesota Vikings 30

September 26, 2021 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Seahawks −2

Luck index +60 Vikings very lucky · −60 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 6, Vikings win 4.

  1. 1 SEA 31 MIN 7
  2. 2 SEA 37 MIN 21
  3. 3 SEA 28 MIN 17
  4. 4 SEA 31 MIN 24
  5. 5 SEA 24 MIN 20
  6. 6 SEA 14 MIN 12
  7. 7 SEA 23 MIN 26
  8. 8 SEA 10 MIN 16
  9. 9 SEA 20 MIN 31
  10. 10 SEA 20 MIN 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 60% of them, Vikings 40%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+13.2%
Seahawks by 9–1616.4%
Seahawks by 1–828.8%
Level after regulation2.8%
Vikings by 1–819.8%
Vikings by 9–1613.4%
Vikings by 17+5.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.6 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 13, without the luck Vikings by 3.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 53 yds made · 71% expected
  • J. Myers, 44 yds missed · 85% expected
  • G. Joseph, 43 yds made · 86% expected
  • G. Joseph, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • G. Joseph, 20 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 4 for 35 yards, Vikings 4 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:26 Illegal Motion on the Seahawks (Penny Hart), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.4 pts
Q1 2:04 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Seahawks (Alex Collins), 10 yards +3% MIN +0.9 pts
Q2 9:53 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Ugo Amadi), 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% MIN +1.5 pts
Q2 6:01 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards +6% SEA +1.7 pts
Q2 5:32 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Quandre Diggs), 15 yards +5% MIN +1.4 pts
Q3 3:59 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Josh Metellus), 10 yards +3% SEA +0.9 pts
Q4 4:09 Roughing the Passer on the Vikings (Everson Griffen), 15 yards +1% SEA +0.8 pts
Q4 0:29 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.1 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:26 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +5% SEA SEA: Touchdown
2 Q1 5:13 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% SEA SEA: Field goal
3 Q1 0:32 J. Myers made a 53-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 13 of 18 from 45+ before +6% SEA SEA: Touchdown
4 Q2 6:01 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yardsJudgment calls +6% SEA SEA: Missed field goal
5 Q2 5:32 The Vikings converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Quandre Diggs), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 2133 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +14% MIN MIN: Touchdown
6 Q2 3:26 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +4% MIN SEA: Missed field goal
7 Q2 3:18 J. Myers missed a 44-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +12% MIN SEA: End of half
8 Q2 0:29 The Vikings converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% MIN MIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dalvin Cook (MIN RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Brandon Shell (SEA T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Cedric Ogbuehi (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Benson Mayowa (SEA DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ethan Pocic (SEA G/C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Benson Mayowa (SEA LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 16% · Vikings 84%

Final margin
Vikings by 13
Luck in points
9.6 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 3.4
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 60% · Vikings 40% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2021 games · Seahawks · Vikings

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