luckadjusted

Week 3 2021 · September 26, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Seahawks at Vikings, Week 3 2021: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Seahawks 30–17, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Vikings win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 3.4 points to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:32 left): the Vikings converted 3rd & 13, worth 18 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 17
Minnesota Vikings 30

September 26, 2021 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Seahawks −2

Luck index +58 Vikings lucky · −58 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 6, Vikings win 4.

  1. 1 SEA 22 MIN 0
  2. 2 SEA 20 MIN 3
  3. 3 SEA 24 MIN 13
  4. 4 SEA 14 MIN 7
  5. 5 SEA 26 MIN 22
  6. 6 SEA 26 MIN 24
  7. 7 SEA 7 MIN 10
  8. 8 SEA 13 MIN 19
  9. 9 SEA 24 MIN 34
  10. 10 SEA 3 MIN 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 58% of them, Vikings 42%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+12.7%
Seahawks by 9–1616.6%
Seahawks by 1–828.3%
Level after regulation2.5%
Vikings by 1–820.2%
Vikings by 9–1612.9%
Vikings by 17+6.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 13. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 3.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 53 yds made · 71% expected
  • J. Myers, 44 yds missed · 84% expected
  • G. Joseph, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • G. Joseph, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • G. Joseph, 20 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:26 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +9% SEA SEA: Touchdown
2 Q1 5:13 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +6% SEA SEA: Field goal
3 Q1 0:32 J. Myers made 53-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 13 of 18 from 45+ before +6% SEA SEA: Touchdown
4 Q2 6:01 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yardsJudgment calls +6% SEA SEA: Missed field goal
5 Q2 5:32 The Vikings converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Quandre Diggs), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 2133 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +18% MIN MIN: Touchdown
6 Q2 3:26 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +4% MIN SEA: Missed field goal
7 Q2 3:18 J. Myers missed 44-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him +12% MIN SEA: End of half
8 Q2 0:29 The Vikings converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% MIN MIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dalvin Cook (MIN RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Brandon Shell (SEA T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Cedric Ogbuehi (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Benson Mayowa (SEA DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ethan Pocic (SEA G/C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Benson Mayowa (SEA LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 19% · Vikings 81%

Final margin
Vikings by 13
Luck in points
9.9 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 3.1
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 58% · Vikings 42% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2021 games · Seahawks · Vikings

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