luckadjusted

Week 3 2021 · September 26, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Buccaneers at Rams, Week 3 2021: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Buccaneers 34–24, but the Buccaneers played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 4.0 points to the Rams.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q3, 14:12 left): the Rams converted 3rd & 10, worth 14 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24
Los Angeles Rams 34

September 26, 2021 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −1

Luck index +66 Rams very lucky · −66 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 7, Rams win 3.

  1. 1 TB 37 LA 13
  2. 2 TB 35 LA 17
  3. 3 TB 40 LA 27
  4. 4 TB 34 LA 24
  5. 5 TB 17 LA 10
  6. 6 TB 14 LA 10
  7. 7 TB 30 LA 28
  8. 8 TB 17 LA 20
  9. 9 TB 19 LA 27
  10. 10 TB 17 LA 32

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 66% of them, Rams 34%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+17.7%
Buccaneers by 9–1620.9%
Buccaneers by 1–825.7%
Level after regulation2.1%
Rams by 1–819.3%
Rams by 9–169.4%
Rams by 17+5.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 2.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Succop, 55 yds missed · 66% expected
  • M. Gay, 48 yds made · 79% expected
  • R. Succop, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Gay, 26 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:23 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +5% LA TB: Punt
2 Q1 5:41 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% LA TB: Punt
3 Q1 2:28 The Rams fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% LA LA: Touchdown
4 Q2 4:07 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +5% TB TB: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:51 Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Rob Gronkowski), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1144 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +10% LA LA: Touchdown
6 Q3 14:12 The Rams converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +14% LA LA: Touchdown
7 Q3 9:07 The Rams converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% LA LA: Touchdown
8 Q3 8:11 The Rams converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +7% LA LA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cam Akers (LA RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Sean Murphy-Bunting (TB CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jason Pierre-Paul (TB DE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jason Pierre-Paul (TB OLB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Kevin Minter (TB ILB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Zach Triner (TB LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 45% · Rams 55%

Final margin
Rams by 10
Luck in points
12.0 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 2.0
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 66% · Rams 34% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2021 games · Buccaneers · Rams

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