luckadjusted

Week 3 2021 · September 27, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Eagles at Cowboys, Week 3 2021: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Eagles 41–21 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:04 left): Return touchdown by the Eagles, worth 24 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 21
Dallas Cowboys 41

September 27, 2021 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −3.5

Luck index +26 Cowboys lucky · −26 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 3, Cowboys win 7.

  1. 1 PHI 33 DAL 13
  2. 2 PHI 31 DAL 23
  3. 3 PHI 26 DAL 23
  4. 4 PHI 34 DAL 36
  5. 5 PHI 27 DAL 33
  6. 6 PHI 14 DAL 23
  7. 7 PHI 15 DAL 27
  8. 8 PHI 14 DAL 30
  9. 9 PHI 23 DAL 42
  10. 10 PHI 16 DAL 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 26% of them, Cowboys 74%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+4.3%
Eagles by 9–168.0%
Eagles by 1–813.3%
Level after regulation1.9%
Cowboys by 1–822.7%
Cowboys by 9–1619.3%
Cowboys by 17+30.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 20. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 9.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:04 The Cowboys fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the EaglesSpecial teams +24% PHI DAL: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 7:32 Face Mask on the Eagles (Marcus Epps), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 989 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +4% DAL DAL: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 5:50 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +9% PHI DAL: Touchdown
4 Q1 4:58 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +4% DAL PHI: Punt
5 Q2 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yardsJudgment calls +3% PHI PHI: Punt
6 Q2 8:54 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +3% PHI PHI: Punt
7 Q2 2:02 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% DAL DAL: End of half
8 Q3 14:17 Return touchdown by the CowboysSpecial teams +6% DAL DAL: Opp touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Michael Gallup (DAL WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Donovan Wilson (DAL S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Keanu Neal (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Carlos Watkins (DAL DE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Hunter Niswander (DAL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Neville Gallimore (DAL DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Jordan Mailata (PHI T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Brandon Graham (PHI DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jack Driscoll (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Rodney McLeod (PHI S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Brandon Brooks (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 8% · Cowboys 92%

Final margin
Cowboys by 20
Luck in points
11.0 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 9.0
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 26% · Cowboys 74% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2021 games · Eagles · Cowboys

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