luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2021 · September 27, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Eagles at Cowboys, Week 3 2021: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Eagles 41–21, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:04 left): Return touchdown by the Eagles, worth 25 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 21
Dallas Cowboys 41

September 27, 2021 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −3.5

Luck index +24 Cowboys about even · −24 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 2, Cowboys win 8.

  1. 1 PHI 26 DAL 10
  2. 2 PHI 31 DAL 27
  3. 3 PHI 23 DAL 25
  4. 4 PHI 28 DAL 33
  5. 5 PHI 17 DAL 24
  6. 6 PHI 34 DAL 44
  7. 7 PHI 22 DAL 36
  8. 8 PHI 20 DAL 38
  9. 9 PHI 6 DAL 29
  10. 10 PHI 20 DAL 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 24% of them, Cowboys 76%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+3.8%
Eagles by 9–167.5%
Eagles by 1–811.8%
Level after regulation2.2%
Cowboys by 1–823.7%
Cowboys by 9–1619.1%
Cowboys by 17+32.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.2 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 20, without the luck Cowboys by 14.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Eagles 13 for 86 yards, Cowboys 4 for 37 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:36 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Javon Hargrave), 0 yards +1% DAL +0.4 pts
Q1 8:51 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.1 pts
Q1 8:04 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Darius Slay), 6 yards +2% DAL +0.3 pts
Q1 7:32 Face Mask on the Eagles (Marcus Epps), 10 yards +4% DAL +1.3 pts
Q1 2:24 False Start on the Cowboys (Amari Cooper), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.7 pts
Q2 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +3% PHI +0.9 pts
Q2 13:25 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Eagles (Derek Barnett), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DAL +0.7 pts
Q2 8:54 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% PHI +1.7 pts
Q2 4:11 Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Greg Ward), 10 yards 0% DAL +0.9 pts
Q2 2:02 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% DAL +2.8 pts
Q3 10:15 False Start on the Eagles (Zach Ertz), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.5 pts
Q3 4:02 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% DAL +1.8 pts
Q4 12:33 Defensive Offside on the Eagles (Milton Williams), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.1 pts
Q4 9:53 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% DAL +3.0 pts
Q4 5:21 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards 0% DAL +1.5 pts
Q4 4:49 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% DAL +1.4 pts
Q4 2:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys, 12 yards 0% PHI +1.1 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:04 The Cowboys fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the EaglesSpecial teams +25% PHI DAL: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 7:32 Face Mask on the Eagles (Marcus Epps), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 989 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +4% DAL DAL: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 5:50 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +8% PHI DAL: Touchdown
4 Q1 4:58 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +4% DAL PHI: Punt
5 Q2 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yardsJudgment calls +3% PHI PHI: Punt
6 Q2 8:54 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +3% PHI PHI: Punt
7 Q2 2:02 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% DAL DAL: End of half
8 Q3 14:17 Return touchdown by the CowboysSpecial teams +6% DAL DAL: Opp touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Michael Gallup (DAL WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Donovan Wilson (DAL S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Keanu Neal (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Carlos Watkins (DAL DE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Hunter Niswander (DAL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Neville Gallimore (DAL DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Jordan Mailata (PHI T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Brandon Graham (PHI DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jack Driscoll (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Rodney McLeod (PHI S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Brandon Brooks (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 0% · Cowboys 100%

Final margin
Cowboys by 20
Luck in points
5.2 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 14.8
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 24% · Cowboys 76% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2021 games · Eagles · Cowboys

More from Week 3 2021