NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Eagles have won 72.5 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 64.8. Luck added 7.7 wins. Their luckiest season was 2025 (+4.0 wins), the unluckiest 2020 (−0.4).
2026: 2–7 so far, replay wins 2.0 (0.0 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, wins | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2–7 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2–3 | +0.74 | – |
| 2025 | 11–6 | 7.0 | +4.0 | 8–4 | −1.26 | 0–1 |
| 2024 | 14–3 | 12.3 | +1.7 | 8–2 | −0.02 | 4–0 |
| 2023 | 11–6 | 9.9 | +1.1 | 8–3 | −0.04 | 0–1 |
| 2022 | 14–3 | 12.9 | +1.1 | 7–1 | −0.07 | 2–1 |
| 2021 | 9–8 | 8.7 | +0.3 | 2–4 | −0.49 | 0–1 |
| 2020 | 4–11–1 | 4.9 | −0.4 | 3–5–1 | +1.14 | – |
| 2019 | 9–7 | 9.1 | −0.1 | 5–5 | −0.53 | 0–1 |
Where the luck came from
Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.
| Season | Luck in wins | Fumble bounces | Kicks | Drops | Judgment calls | Injuries | 3rd & 4th downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +4.0 | +0.07 | +1.03 | +0.44 | −0.63 | +0.34 | +0.23 |
| 2024 | +1.7 | −0.14 | −0.59 | +0.42 | −0.01 | −0.33 | +0.65 |
| 2023 | +1.1 | −0.31 | +0.72 | +1.67 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.14 |
| 2022 | +1.1 | −0.26 | +0.15 | +0.25 | −0.03 | +0.33 | +0.39 |
| 2021 | +0.3 | −0.07 | +0.15 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.40 | −0.13 |
| 2020 | −0.4 | +0.92 | −0.33 | 0.00 | +0.57 | −0.12 | −0.43 |
| 2019 | −0.1 | −0.05 | −0.02 | 0.00 | −0.27 | −0.22 | +0.23 |
| Since 2019 | +7.7 | +0.16 | +1.11 | +2.78 | −0.63 | +0.43 | +0.81 |
Are the Eagles lucky?
Yes. Since 2019 the Eagles have won 72.5 regular-season games from play worth 64.8: +7.7 wins of luck, the 5th-most of 32 teams.
Why have the Eagles been so lucky?
Most of it came from drops (+2.8 wins) and kicks (+1.1 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 41–24–1 since 2019, where the replays give them 35.1 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.
What was the Eagles’ luckiest season?
2025: 11–6 from play worth 7.0 wins, +4.0 of luck. Their unluckiest was 2020: 4–11–1 from play worth 4.9 (−0.4).
By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from
The Eagles’ luckiest wins
Wins the Eagles take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
The Eagles’ unluckiest losses
Losses the Eagles would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 Week 12 | @ Giants | L 7–13 | 81% | −81 |
| 2023 Week 6 | @ Jets | L 14–20 | 70% | −70 |
| 2023 Week 15 | @ Seahawks | L 17–20 | 69% | −69 |
| 2024 Week 2 | vs Falcons | L 21–22 | 67% | −67 |
| 2020 Week 1 | @ Washington | L 17–27 | 60% | −60 |
