luckadjusted

Referee calls · 2019–2026

Do refs favor the Eagles?

No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth −0.29 points a game to the Eagles since 2019, 22nd of 32 teams. In the playoffs: +1.34 points a game over 11 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

Call luck, season by season

Points per regular-season game from judgment calls: the calls that helped the Eagles minus the calls that hurt them.

SeasonGamesPoints per gameLeague rankFlags againstFlags forPlayoffs, pts per game
20262−1.21 20th75 –
202517−1.72 30th7455 −3.74 (1)
202417−0.42 26th6153 +4.22 (4)
202317+0.18 17th4962 −4.95 (1)
202217−0.93 29th5754 +1.18 (3)
202117−1.43 29th7054 −3.62 (1)
202016+2.25 2nd5071 –
201916+0.34 16th6871 +6.61 (1)

Biggest calls for the Eagles

  1. Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2020 Week 7 · 26 pts of win probability
  2. Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 15 · 21 pts of win probability
  3. Offensive Pass Interference on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 10 · 18 pts of win probability
  4. Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 31 yards · 2023 Week 8 · 18 pts of win probability
  5. Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2024 Week 6 · 17 pts of win probability

Biggest calls against

  1. Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Darren Sproles), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 3 · 53 pts of win probability
  2. Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 14 · 28 pts of win probability
  3. Roughing the Passer on the Eagles (Haason Reddick), 15 yards · 2023 Week 9 · 26 pts of win probability
  4. Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 17 · 26 pts of win probability
  5. Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 16 · 22 pts of win probability

Questions

Do refs favor the Eagles?

No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth −0.29 points a game to the Eagles since 2019, 22nd of 32 teams.

What about the playoffs?

In the playoffs: +1.34 points a game over 11 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

How is this measured?

Every flag that isn’t a pre-snap foul (holding, pass interference, roughing, unnecessary roughness and the like) is valued in expected points for the team it helped, including any play it wiped out. A flag on a player who is rarely flagged counts more (up to twice), one on a frequent offender less. A team’s call luck is the calls that helped it minus the calls that hurt it. It says how the calls went, not why: teams that throw deep draw more pass interference, for example.

Is it more than chance?

Mostly not. A team’s call luck in odd weeks barely predicts its call luck in even weeks (correlation 0.06 across all teams since 2019), which is what chance looks like. Over 32 teams, a few will always sit at the top of this list.

All teams, 2026 · Referee crews · Philadelphia Eagles, every season