luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 14 2025 · December 8, 2025

Eagles at Chargers, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Eagles 22–19, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Chargers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 28 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (OT, 3:23 left): Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chargers (Odafe Oweh), 5 yards, worth 31 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final (OT)

Philadelphia Eagles 19
Los Angeles Chargers 22

December 8, 2025 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −1.5

Luck index +49 Chargers lucky · −49 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 5, Chargers win 5.

  1. 1 PHI 33 LAC 13
  2. 2 PHI 27 LAC 14
  3. 3 PHI 19 LAC 9
  4. 4 PHI 16 LAC 10
  5. 5 PHI 19 LAC 17
  6. 6 PHI 21 LAC 23
  7. 7 PHI 16 LAC 23
  8. 8 PHI 17 LAC 28
  9. 9 PHI 7 LAC 23
  10. 10 PHI 15 LAC 39

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 49% of them, Chargers 51%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+11.0%
Eagles by 9–1615.4%
Eagles by 1–820.5%
Level after regulation4.6%
Chargers by 1–820.1%
Chargers by 9–1615.8%
Chargers by 17+12.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.1 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Chargers by 3, without the luck Eagles by 1.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 41 yds made · 89% expected
  • C. Dicker, 45 yds made · 88% expected
  • J. Elliott, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Elliott, 48 yds missed · 76% expected
  • C. Dicker, 34 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Elliott, 54 yds made · 67% expected
  • C. Dicker, 31 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Elliott, 44 yds made · 85% expected
  • C. Dicker, 46 yds made · 87% expected
  • C. Dicker, 54 yds made · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 6 for 53 yards, Chargers 7 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:36 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +3% LAC +1.3 pts
Q1 1:59 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.6 pts
Q1 1:37 Defensive Offside on the Eagles (Moro Ojomo), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +12% LAC +3.9 pts
Q2 14:04 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +3% PHI +1.0 pts
Q2 11:52 Illegal Contact on the Chargers (Cam Hart), 5 yards +3% PHI +0.9 pts
Q2 1:10 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% LAC +2.7 pts
Q2 0:17 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Kimani Vidal), 15 yards +5% PHI +1.4 pts
Q3 7:12 Leverage on the Eagles (Moro Ojomo), 9 yards +4% LAC +1.6 pts
Q3 2:28 Offensive Holding on the Chargers (Will Dissly), 10 yards +2% PHI +0.8 pts
Q3 0:38 Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Teair Tart), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PHI +0.4 pts
Q4 1:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Quinyon Mitchell), 9 yards +10% LAC +1.3 pts
OT 5:29 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play +28% LAC +2.8 pts
OT 3:23 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chargers (Odafe Oweh), 5 yards · pre-snap +31% PHI +1.6 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 17% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 11:12 The Eagles were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +13% LAC PHI: Punt
2 Q4 2:23 D. Smith dropped a catchable passDrops · 11 drops on 375 catchable balls before this +28% LAC PHI: Field goal
3 OT 6:29 C. Dicker made a 54-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 39 of 46 from 45+ before +22% PHI –
4 OT 5:29 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +28% LAC –
5 OT 4:57 The Eagles converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +28% PHI PHI: Turnover
6 OT 3:28 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +18% LAC PHI: Turnover
7 OT 3:23 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chargers (Odafe Oweh), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 16 flags in 2846 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +31% PHI PHI: Turnover
8 OT 2:35 The Eagles threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 55% of interception-worthy throws +15% LAC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Alt (LAC T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Austin Deculus (LAC T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Jalen Carter (PHI DT), out · 0.7 pts
  • Andrew Mukuba (PHI S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 54% · Chargers 46%

Final margin
Chargers by 3
Luck in points
4.1 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 49% · Chargers 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Eagles · Chargers

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