luckadjusted

Week 14 2025 · December 8, 2025

Eagles at Chargers, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Eagles 22–19, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Chargers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 5.6 points to the Chargers.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 4:57 left): the Eagles converted 3rd & 16, worth 33 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final (OT)

Philadelphia Eagles 19
Los Angeles Chargers 22

December 8, 2025 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −1.5

Luck index +49 Chargers lucky · −49 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 5, Chargers win 5.

  1. 1 PHI 36 LAC 14
  2. 2 PHI 30 LAC 16
  3. 3 PHI 30 LAC 21
  4. 4 PHI 20 LAC 16
  5. 5 PHI 15 LAC 13
  6. 6 PHI 10 LAC 12
  7. 7 PHI 26 LAC 31
  8. 8 PHI 6 LAC 16
  9. 9 PHI 13 LAC 27
  10. 10 PHI 13 LAC 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 49% of them, Chargers 51%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+11.9%
Eagles by 9–1614.2%
Eagles by 1–821.2%
Level after regulation4.7%
Chargers by 1–821.5%
Chargers by 9–1614.9%
Chargers by 17+11.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chargers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 5.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. Dicker, 45 yds made · 88% expected
  • J. Elliott, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Elliott, 48 yds missed · 77% expected
  • C. Dicker, 34 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Elliott, 54 yds made · 67% expected
  • C. Dicker, 31 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Elliott, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • C. Dicker, 46 yds made · 87% expected
  • C. Dicker, 54 yds made · 74% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 17% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 8:31 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expectedThe Chargers fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50The Eagles threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +24% LAC PHI: Turnover
2 Q2 0:17 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedThe Chargers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's handsUnnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Kimani Vidal), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 541 snaps before, position avg 1 per 829 +24% PHI LAC: Field goal
3 Q4 15:00 The Eagles converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +26% PHI PHI: Touchdown
4 Q4 2:23 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedD. Smith dropped a catchable passDrops · 11 drops on 375 catchable balls before this +26% LAC PHI: Field goal
5 QOT 5:29 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +28% LAC –
6 QOT 4:57 The Eagles converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +33% PHI PHI: Turnover
7 QOT 3:28 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +25% LAC PHI: Turnover
8 QOT 3:23 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chargers (Odafe Oweh), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 16 flags in 2846 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +32% PHI PHI: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Alt (LAC T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Austin Deculus (LAC T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Jalen Carter (PHI DT), out · 0.7 pts
  • Andrew Mukuba (PHI S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 70% · Chargers 30%

Final margin
Chargers by 3
Luck in points
8.5 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 5.5
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 49% · Chargers 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Eagles · Chargers

More from Week 14 2025