luckadjusted

Week 14 2025 · December 7, 2025

Texans at Chiefs, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

The Texans stole one. They beat the Chiefs 20–10, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 6.3 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 9:59 left): the Chiefs converted 4th & 1, worth 12 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final

Houston Texans 20
Kansas City Chiefs 10

December 7, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −4.5

Luck index +89 Texans very lucky · −89 Chiefs

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 1, Chiefs win 9.

  1. 1 HOU 10 KC 3
  2. 2 HOU 19 KC 21
  3. 3 HOU 38 KC 44
  4. 4 HOU 17 KC 26
  5. 5 HOU 20 KC 31
  6. 6 HOU 10 KC 24
  7. 7 HOU 13 KC 29
  8. 8 HOU 3 KC 23
  9. 9 HOU 3 KC 26
  10. 10 HOU 3 KC 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 11% of them, Chiefs 89%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+0.6%
Texans by 9–162.3%
Texans by 1–87.1%
Level after regulation1.6%
Chiefs by 1–817.8%
Chiefs by 9–1621.1%
Chiefs by 17+49.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chiefs by 6.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 35 yds made · 92% expected
  • H. Butker, 43 yds missed · 81% expected
  • H. Butker, 36 yds made · 91% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 28 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:55 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedN. Gray dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 136 catchable balls before this +8% HOU KC: Punt
2 Q1 7:38 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +8% HOU KC: Punt
3 Q1 4:58 Illegal Shift on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +11% KC KC: Punt
4 Q3 9:59 The Chiefs converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +12% KC KC: Touchdown
5 Q3 1:57 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expectedK. Hunt dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 101 catchable balls before this +11% HOU KC: Field goal
6 Q4 13:35 The Texans converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +10% HOU HOU: Punt
7 Q4 10:22 The Chiefs were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +9% HOU KC: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 5:31 The Chiefs were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedR. Rice dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 189 catchable balls before this +10% HOU KC: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jawaan Taylor (KC T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Josh Simmons (KC T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Trey Smith (KC G), out · 0.5 pts
  • M.J. Stewart (HOU S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tim Settle (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 14% · Chiefs 86%

Final margin
Texans by 10
Luck in points
16.3 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 6.3
Replay with same day's form
Texans 11% · Chiefs 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Texans · Chiefs

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