luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 14 2025 · December 7, 2025

Texans at Chiefs, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Chiefs 20–10, but the replays lean toward the Chiefs: they take 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 30 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:31 left): R. Rice dropped a catchable pass, worth 12 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 20
Kansas City Chiefs 10

December 7, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −4.5

Luck index +79 Texans very lucky · −79 Chiefs

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 2, Chiefs win 8.

  1. 1 HOU 18 KC 6
  2. 2 HOU 16 KC 13
  3. 3 HOU 15 KC 17
  4. 4 HOU 16 KC 21
  5. 5 HOU 12 KC 19
  6. 6 HOU 10 KC 20
  7. 7 HOU 10 KC 24
  8. 8 HOU 3 KC 20
  9. 9 HOU 6 KC 27
  10. 10 HOU 9 KC 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 21% of them, Chiefs 79%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+2.0%
Texans by 9–166.1%
Texans by 1–812.2%
Level after regulation1.8%
Chiefs by 1–827.0%
Chiefs by 9–1620.5%
Chiefs by 17+30.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +18.7 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 10, without the luck Chiefs by 8.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 35 yds made · 92% expected
  • H. Butker, 43 yds missed · 82% expected
  • H. Butker, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 28 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 8 for 59 yards, Chiefs 5 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:02 Defensive Holding on the Chiefs (Nick Bolton), 5 yards +3% HOU +0.4 pts
Q1 4:58 Illegal Shift on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +11% KC +3.6 pts
Q1 4:35 Offensive Offside on the Texans, 4 yards · pre-snap +3% KC +1.0 pts
Q2 14:13 Defensive Holding on the Chiefs (Nohl Williams), 5 yards +4% HOU +1.5 pts
Q2 11:19 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KC +0.8 pts
Q2 3:24 Face Mask on the Texans (Mario Edwards), 15 yards +3% KC +1.2 pts
Q2 1:00 Offensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Nico Collins), 10 yards +2% KC +0.4 pts
Q2 0:23 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.5 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Texans (British Brooks), 10 yards +1% KC +0.9 pts
Q3 9:20 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Chiefs (Mike Edwards), 3 yards +1% HOU +0.3 pts
Q3 9:03 False Start on the Chiefs, 2 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.7 pts
Q4 3:58 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KC +0.8 pts
Q4 0:11 False Start on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.1 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:58 Illegal Shift on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +11% KC KC: Punt
2 Q2 1:09 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +7% HOU KC: Missed field goal
3 Q2 1:03 H. Butker missed a 43-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him +7% HOU KC: Touchdown
4 Q3 9:59 The Chiefs converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +9% KC KC: Touchdown
5 Q3 1:57 K. Hunt dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 101 catchable balls before this +7% HOU KC: Field goal
6 Q4 13:35 The Texans converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +10% HOU HOU: Punt
7 Q4 10:22 The Chiefs were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +9% HOU KC: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 5:31 R. Rice dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 189 catchable balls before this +12% HOU KC: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jawaan Taylor (KC T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Josh Simmons (KC T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Trey Smith (KC G), out · 0.5 pts
  • M.J. Stewart (HOU S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tim Settle (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 3% · Chiefs 97%

Final margin
Texans by 10
Luck in points
18.7 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 8.7
Replay with same day's form
Texans 21% · Chiefs 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Texans · Chiefs

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