luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 14 2025 · December 7, 2025

Commanders at Vikings, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Commanders 31–0, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:46 left): D. Samuel dropped a catchable pass, worth 8 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Washington Commanders 0
Minnesota Vikings 31

December 7, 2025 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Commanders −1.5

Luck index +33 Vikings lucky · −33 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 3, Vikings win 7.

  1. 1 WAS 28 MIN 13
  2. 2 WAS 20 MIN 13
  3. 3 WAS 6 MIN 3
  4. 4 WAS 21 MIN 23
  5. 5 WAS 14 MIN 17
  6. 6 WAS 0 MIN 6
  7. 7 WAS 10 MIN 19
  8. 8 WAS 14 MIN 26
  9. 9 WAS 9 MIN 24
  10. 10 WAS 7 MIN 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 33% of them, Vikings 67%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 31.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+3.4%
Commanders by 9–168.6%
Commanders by 1–820.4%
Level after regulation2.1%
Vikings by 1–831.1%
Vikings by 9–1620.2%
Vikings by 17+14.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.0 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 31, without the luck Vikings by 19. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Commanders 4 for 34 yards, Vikings 3 for 24 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:03 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Percy Butler), 10 yards +2% MIN +0.9 pts
Q1 7:05 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (John Bates), 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% MIN +1.8 pts
Q2 2:00 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.3 pts
Q3 13:31 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Fabian Moreau), 14 yards +2% WAS +1.9 pts
Q3 12:05 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Vikings, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% WAS +2.9 pts
Q4 13:29 Roughing the Passer on the Commanders (Jacob Martin), 9 yards, wiping out the play 0% WAS +0.8 pts
Q4 5:45 Defensive Holding on the Commanders (Sheldon Day), 5 yards 0% MIN +0.6 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:05 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (John Bates), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 9 flags in 3210 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +6% MIN MIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 5:15 The Commanders converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +8% WAS WAS: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 2:46 D. Samuel dropped a catchable passDrops · 14 drops on 282 catchable balls before this +8% MIN WAS: Punt
4 Q1 1:24 The Vikings converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +6% MIN MIN: Touchdown
5 Q2 12:16 The Vikings converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +4% MIN MIN: Touchdown
6 Q2 9:59 The Vikings converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% MIN MIN: Touchdown
7 Q2 7:50 The Vikings converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% MIN MIN: Touchdown
8 Q3 12:05 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Vikings, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +5% WAS WAS: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Carson Wentz (MIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.mccarthy · 2.6 pts
  • Theo Jackson (MIN S), out · 0.1 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (WAS CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Trey Amos (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 0% · Vikings 100%

Final margin
Vikings by 31
Luck in points
12.0 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 19.0
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 33% · Vikings 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Commanders · Vikings

More from Week 14 2025