luckadjusted

Week 14 2025 · December 7, 2025

Commanders at Vikings, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Commanders 31–0 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 8:24 left): the Commanders were stopped on 4th & 3, worth 9 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Washington Commanders 0
Minnesota Vikings 31

December 7, 2025 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Commanders −1.5

Luck index +32 Vikings lucky · −32 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 3, Vikings win 7.

  1. 1 WAS 30 MIN 16
  2. 2 WAS 23 MIN 16
  3. 3 WAS 16 MIN 13
  4. 4 WAS 23 MIN 24
  5. 5 WAS 14 MIN 17
  6. 6 WAS 14 MIN 20
  7. 7 WAS 6 MIN 16
  8. 8 WAS 7 MIN 19
  9. 9 WAS 14 MIN 30
  10. 10 WAS 12 MIN 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 32% of them, Vikings 68%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 31.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+2.5%
Commanders by 9–168.2%
Commanders by 1–820.3%
Level after regulation1.9%
Vikings by 1–831.4%
Vikings by 9–1621.9%
Vikings by 17+13.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 31. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 20.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:05 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (John Bates), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 9 flags in 3210 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +6% MIN MIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 5:15 The Commanders converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +8% WAS WAS: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 2:46 The Commanders were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expectedD. Samuel dropped a catchable passDrops · 14 drops on 282 catchable balls before this +8% MIN WAS: Punt
4 Q1 1:24 The Vikings converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% MIN MIN: Touchdown
5 Q2 9:59 The Vikings converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% MIN MIN: Touchdown
6 Q2 7:50 The Vikings converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +7% MIN MIN: Touchdown
7 Q3 12:05 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Vikings, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +5% WAS WAS: Turnover
8 Q3 8:24 The Commanders were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedThe Commanders were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% MIN WAS: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Carson Wentz (MIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.mccarthy · 2.6 pts
  • Theo Jackson (MIN S), out · 0.1 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (WAS CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Trey Amos (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 0% · Vikings 100%

Final margin
Vikings by 31
Luck in points
10.3 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 20.7
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 32% · Vikings 68% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Commanders · Vikings

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