Week 14 2025 · December 7, 2025
Bears at Packers, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
The Packers beat the Bears 28–21, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.
Before kickoff the Packers were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:35 left): the Bears were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 9 points of win probability to the Packers.
Final
 Chicago Bears | 21 |
|---|---|
 Green Bay Packers | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 Packers about even · −24 Bears
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bears win 2, Packers win 8.
- 1 CHI 29 GB 17
- 2 CHI 24 GB 21
- 3 CHI 12 GB 14
- 4 CHI 21 GB 25
- 5 CHI 10 GB 17
- 6 CHI 17 GB 27
- 7 CHI 6 GB 17
- 8 CHI 13 GB 27
- 9 CHI 23 GB 40
- 10 CHI 13 GB 37
Your call
Did the Packers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bears win 24% of them, Packers 76%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bears by 17+ | 2.3% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 5.7% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 13.3% |
| Level after regulation | 4.8% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 28.6% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 22.6% |
| Packers by 17+ | 22.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Santos, 33 yds made · 94% expected
- C. Santos, 41 yds made · 84% expected
Penalties: Bears 4 for 17 yards, Packers 6 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:19 | Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% GB +2.0 pts |
| Q1 13:53 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Packers (Bo Melton), 10 yards | +2% CHI +0.9 pts |
| Q1 5:42 | False Start on the Bears (Colston Loveland), 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% GB +0.6 pts |
| Q1 4:09 | Face Mask on the Packers, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +4% CHI +2.2 pts |
| Q2 7:15 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Packers (Keisean Nixon), 5 yards | +2% CHI +0.7 pts |
| Q2 4:11 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Keisean Nixon), 15 yards | +5% CHI +1.5 pts |
| Q2 1:14 | Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Bears (Cairo Santos), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% GB 0.0 pts |
| Q3 14:10 | Offensive Holding on the Packers (Matthew Orzech), 10 yards | +1% CHI +0.9 pts |
| Q3 6:10 | Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Packers (Brandon McManus), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% CHI 0.0 pts |
| Q4 4:18 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bears (Austin Booker), 2 yards · pre-snap | +2% GB +0.4 pts |
Bears penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Packers’ chance of winning
As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:42 | K. Monangai dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 12 catchable balls before thisFalse Start on the Bears (Colston Loveland), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 4 flags in 464 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 | +9% GB | CHI: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 9:25 | The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +6% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 3:26 | The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +5% GB | CHI: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 9:33 | The Bears converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +8% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 5:20 | The Packers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +6% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 3:37 | The Packers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +8% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:35 | The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +9% GB | CHI: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 0:27 | The Bears threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 55% of interception-worthy throws | +8% GB | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Tucker Kraft (GB TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Elgton Jenkins (GB C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Devonte Wyatt (GB DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Rome Odunze (CHI WR), out · 0.7 pts
- Tremaine Edmunds (CHI LB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Tyrique Stevenson (CHI DB), out · 0.4 pts
- Dayo Odeyingbo (CHI DL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bears 2% · Packers 98%
- Final margin
- Packers by 7
- Luck in points
- 2.2 for the Bears
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Packers by 9.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Bears 24% · Packers 76% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Bears · 
Packers
More from Week 14 2025
- Cowboys at Lions DET 44–30 · replay 80% for the winner
- Bengals at Bills BUF 39–34 · replay 59% for the winner
- Colts at Jaguars JAX 36–19 · replay 78% for the winner
- Dolphins at Jets MIA 34–10 · replay 97% for the winner
- Saints at Buccaneers NO 24–20 · replay 51% for the winner
- Steelers at Ravens PIT 27–22 · replay 53% for the winner
- Seahawks at Falcons SEA 37–9 · replay 80% for the winner
- Titans at Browns TEN 31–29 · replay 30% for the winner
- Commanders at Vikings MIN 31–0 · replay 67% for the winner
- Broncos at Raiders DEN 24–17 · replay 73% for the winner
- Rams at Cardinals LA 45–17 · replay 100% for the winner
- Texans at Chiefs HOU 20–10 · replay 21% for the winner
- Eagles at Chargers LAC 22–19 · replay 51% for the winner