2025 season · final
Green Bay Packers, 2025: game by game
The Packers went 9–7–1 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.4 wins. Luck cost them 2.9: the 5th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–5–1.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.5.
Every game
How often the Packers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Lions | W 27–13 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 2 | vs Commanders | W 27–18 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 3 | @ Browns | L 10–13 | 83% | −83 |
| Week 4 | @ Cowboys | T 40–40 | 53% | −3 |
| Week 6 | vs Bengals | W 27–18 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 7 | @ Cardinals | W 27–23 | 56% | +44 |
| Week 8 | @ Steelers | W 35–25 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 9 | vs Panthers | L 13–16 | 73% | −73 |
| Week 10 | vs Eagles | L 7–10 | 52% | −52 |
| Week 11 | @ Giants | W 27–20 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 12 | vs Vikings | W 23–6 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 13 | @ Lions | W 31–24 | 59% | +41 |
| Week 14 | vs Bears | W 28–21 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 15 | @ Broncos | L 26–34 | 92% | −92 |
| Week 16 | @ Bears | L 16–22 | 76% | −76 |
| Week 17 | vs Ravens | L 24–41 | 59% | −59 |
| Week 18 | @ Vikings | L 3–16 | 14% | −14 |
| Wild Card | @ Bears | L 27–31 | 52% | −52 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Packers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.43 | +11.4 |
| Judgment calls | +0.14 | −2.5 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.10 | +12.3 |
| Drops | +0.07 | −1.5 |
| Rest | −0.02 | −0.2 |
| Kicks | −1.49 | −17.7 |