Referee calls · 2019–2026
Do refs favor the Packers?
No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth +0.47 points a game to the Packers since 2019, 6th of 32 teams. In the playoffs: −1.39 points a game over 9 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.
Call luck, season by season
Points per regular-season game from judgment calls: the calls that helped the Packers minus the calls that hurt them.
| Season | Games | Points per game | League rank | Flags against | Flags for | Playoffs, pts per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | −2.55 | 24th | 20 | 16 | – |
| 2025 | 17 | −0.30 | 21st | 63 | 56 | −5.85 (1) |
| 2024 | 17 | −0.36 | 24th | 62 | 55 | −6.48 (1) |
| 2023 | 17 | +0.45 | 12th | 61 | 58 | +1.69 (2) |
| 2022 | 17 | +1.46 | 3rd | 64 | 67 | – |
| 2021 | 17 | −1.20 | 24th | 49 | 55 | +2.63 (1) |
| 2020 | 16 | +1.10 | 7th | 52 | 58 | −1.23 (2) |
| 2019 | 16 | +2.82 | 1st | 54 | 79 | −1.84 (2) |
Biggest calls for the Packers
- Offensive Pass Interference on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 1 · 30 pts of win probability
- Offensive Holding on the Colts (Zach Pascal), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2020 Week 11 · 26 pts of win probability
- Offensive Holding on the Lions, 9 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 18 · 22 pts of win probability
- Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Calvin Austin III), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2023 Week 10 · 20 pts of win probability
- Illegal Use of Hands on the Lions (John Cominsky), 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 18 · 19 pts of win probability
Biggest calls against
- Defensive Holding on the Packers (Xavier McKinney), 3 yards, wiping out the play · 2026 Week 1 · 39 pts of win probability
- Offensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Christian Watson), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2024 Week 14 · 29 pts of win probability
- Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Packers, 10 yards · 2022 Week 4 · 23 pts of win probability
- Offensive Holding on the Packers (Marcedes Lewis), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2020 Week 11 · 21 pts of win probability
- Horse Collar Tackle on the Packers (Kingsley Enagbare), 15 yards, wiping out the play · 2024 Week 18 · 20 pts of win probability
Questions
Do refs favor the Packers?
No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth +0.47 points a game to the Packers since 2019, 6th of 32 teams.
What about the playoffs?
In the playoffs: −1.39 points a game over 9 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.
How is this measured?
Every flag that isn’t a pre-snap foul (holding, pass interference, roughing, unnecessary roughness and the like) is valued in expected points for the team it helped, including any play it wiped out. A flag on a player who is rarely flagged counts more (up to twice), one on a frequent offender less. A team’s call luck is the calls that helped it minus the calls that hurt it. It says how the calls went, not why: teams that throw deep draw more pass interference, for example.
Is it more than chance?
Mostly not. A team’s call luck in odd weeks barely predicts its call luck in even weeks (correlation 0.06 across all teams since 2019), which is what chance looks like. Over 32 teams, a few will always sit at the top of this list.
All teams, 2026 · Referee crews · Green Bay Packers, every season