2019 season · final
Green Bay Packers, 2019: game by game
The Packers went 13–3 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.0 wins. Luck added 5.0: the luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 8–1.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 0.5.
Every game
How often the Packers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Bears | W 10–3 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 2 | vs Vikings | W 21–16 | 60% | +40 |
| Week 3 | vs Broncos | W 27–16 | 57% | +43 |
| Week 4 | vs Eagles | L 27–34 | 16% | −16 |
| Week 5 | @ Cowboys | W 34–24 | 7% | +93 |
| Week 6 | vs Lions | W 23–22 | 56% | +44 |
| Week 7 | vs Raiders | W 42–24 | 38% | +62 |
| Week 8 | @ Chiefs | W 31–24 | 40% | +60 |
| Week 9 | @ Chargers | L 11–26 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 10 | vs Panthers | W 24–16 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 12 | @ 49ers | L 8–37 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 13 | @ Giants | W 31–13 | 58% | +42 |
| Week 14 | vs Washington | W 20–15 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 15 | vs Bears | W 21–13 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 16 | @ Vikings | W 23–10 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 17 | @ Lions | W 23–20 | 43% | +57 |
| Divisional round | vs Seahawks | W 28–23 | 43% | +57 |
| NFC Championship | @ 49ers | L 20–37 | 5% | −5 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Packers’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +45.1 | +2.82 |
| Injuries | +20.8 | +1.30 |
| Kicks | +7.2 | +0.45 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +4.4 | +0.28 |
| Rest | −1.6 | −0.10 |
| Fumble bounces | −15.7 | −0.98 |