2019 season · final
Green Bay Packers, 2019: game by game
The Packers went 13–3 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.9 wins. Luck added 5.1: the luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 8–1.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 0.5.
Every game
How often the Packers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Bears | W 10–3 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 2 | vs Vikings | W 21–16 | 62% | +38 |
| Week 3 | vs Broncos | W 27–16 | 52% | +48 |
| Week 4 | vs Eagles | L 27–34 | 17% | −17 |
| Week 5 | @ Cowboys | W 34–24 | 5% | +95 |
| Week 6 | vs Lions | W 23–22 | 56% | +44 |
| Week 7 | vs Raiders | W 42–24 | 36% | +64 |
| Week 8 | @ Chiefs | W 31–24 | 42% | +58 |
| Week 9 | @ Chargers | L 11–26 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 10 | vs Panthers | W 24–16 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 12 | @ 49ers | L 8–37 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 13 | @ Giants | W 31–13 | 53% | +47 |
| Week 14 | vs Washington | W 20–15 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 15 | vs Bears | W 21–13 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 16 | @ Vikings | W 23–10 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 17 | @ Lions | W 23–20 | 40% | +60 |
| Divisional round | vs Seahawks | W 28–23 | 41% | +59 |
| NFC Championship | @ 49ers | L 20–37 | 5% | −5 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Packers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.65 | +22.4 |
| Injuries | +0.38 | +15.6 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.31 | +4.1 |
| Kicks | +0.08 | +6.9 |
| Rest | −0.04 | −1.6 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.36 | −20.7 |