Week 3 2019 · September 22, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Broncos at Packers, Week 3 2019: who deserved to win?
The Packers beat the Broncos 27–16, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Packers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Packers.
Before kickoff the Packers were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:27 left): the Broncos fumbled and the Packers recovered, worth 9 points of win probability to the Packers.
Final
 Denver Broncos | 16 |
|---|---|
 Green Bay Packers | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +48 Packers lucky · −48 Broncos
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Broncos win 5, Packers win 5.
- 1 DEN 45 GB 24
- 2 DEN 20 GB 6
- 3 DEN 23 GB 13
- 4 DEN 23 GB 16
- 5 DEN 23 GB 20
- 6 DEN 14 GB 17
- 7 DEN 23 GB 30
- 8 DEN 0 GB 10
- 9 DEN 9 GB 23
- 10 DEN 3 GB 24
Your call
Did the Packers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Broncos win 48% of them, Packers 52%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 11.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Broncos by 17+ | 9.7% |
| Broncos by 9–16 | 16.1% |
| Broncos by 1–8 | 20.8% |
| Level after regulation | 5.3% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 20.8% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 15.8% |
| Packers by 17+ | 11.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Crosby, 42 yds made · 85% expected
- B. McManus, 30 yds made · 96% expected
- M. Crosby, 41 yds made · 87% expected
- M. Crosby, 45 yds missed · 80% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
Penalties: Broncos 3 for 27 yards, Packers 7 for 53 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:38 | False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DEN +0.7 pts |
| Q1 8:02 | Fair Catch Interference on the Packers, 15 yards | +2% DEN +1.4 pts |
| Q2 13:38 | False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DEN +0.7 pts |
| Q2 13:16 | Face Mask on the Broncos (Josey Jewell), 15 yards | +4% GB +1.8 pts |
| Q2 6:47 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Emmanuel Sanders), 10 yards | +3% GB +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:24 | Offensive Holding on the Packers, 8 yards | +5% DEN +0.1 pts |
| Q3 5:59 | Offensive Holding on the Packers (Jimmy Graham), 10 yards | +3% DEN +1.1 pts |
| Q3 4:34 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Broncos (Davontae Harris), 2 yards | +1% GB +0.2 pts |
| Q3 0:16 | Illegal Formation on the Packers (Josh Jackson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DEN +0.5 pts |
| Q4 8:23 | Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DEN +0.7 pts |
Broncos penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Packers’ chance of winning
As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:33 | The Packers converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +6% GB | GB: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 11:27 | The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +5% DEN | GB: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 8:42 | The Broncos converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +5% DEN | DEN: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 4:08 | The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +6% GB | DEN: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 2:27 | The Broncos fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% GB | DEN: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 0:24 | Offensive Holding on the Packers, 8 yardsJudgment calls | +5% DEN | DEN: Turnover |
| 7 | Q3 13:50 | The Broncos fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% GB | DEN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 6:05 | The Broncos converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +5% DEN | DEN: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jason Spriggs (GB T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Lane Taylor (GB G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Equanimeous St. Brown (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Raven Greene (GB FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Tim Patrick (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Broncos 2% · Packers 98%
- Final margin
- Packers by 11
- Luck in points
- 0.4 for the Packers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Packers by 10.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Broncos 48% · Packers 52% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2019 games · 
Broncos · 
Packers
More from Week 3 2019
- Titans at Jaguars JAX 20–7 · replay 89% for the winner
- Falcons at Colts IND 27–24 · replay 69% for the winner
- Ravens at Chiefs KC 33–28 · replay 44% for the winner
- Bengals at Bills BUF 21–17 · replay 71% for the winner
- Lions at Eagles DET 27–24 · replay 60% for the winner
- Dolphins at Cowboys DAL 31–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Jets at Patriots NE 30–14 · replay 99% for the winner
- Raiders at Vikings MIN 34–14 · replay 79% for the winner
- Panthers at Cardinals CAR 38–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Giants at Buccaneers NYG 32–31 · replay 19% for the winner
- Texans at Chargers HOU 27–20 · replay 39% for the winner
- Saints at Seahawks NO 33–27 · replay 67% for the winner
- Steelers at 49ers SF 24–20 · replay 90% for the winner
- Rams at Browns LA 20–13 · replay 81% for the winner
- Bears at Washington CHI 31–15 · replay 54% for the winner