luckadjusted

Week 3 2019 · September 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Raiders at Vikings, Week 3 2019: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Raiders 34–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 74% favorites.

Final

Oakland Raiders 14
Minnesota Vikings 34

September 22, 2019 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −8.5

Luck index +19 Vikings about even · −19 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 2, Vikings win 8.

  1. 1 OAK 34 MIN 22
  2. 2 OAK 23 MIN 20
  3. 3 OAK 41 MIN 43
  4. 4 OAK 27 MIN 31
  5. 5 OAK 20 MIN 27
  6. 6 OAK 7 MIN 17
  7. 7 OAK 24 MIN 37
  8. 8 OAK 7 MIN 24
  9. 9 OAK 3 MIN 23
  10. 10 OAK 13 MIN 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 19% of them, Vikings 81%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+1.8%
Raiders by 9–165.2%
Raiders by 1–811.0%
Level after regulation2.4%
Vikings by 1–827.2%
Vikings by 9–1622.3%
Vikings by 17+30.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 20. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 10.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Bailey, 50 yds made · 73% expected
  • D. Carlson, 51 yds missed · 73% expected
  • D. Bailey, 24 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 50% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:51 Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Gareon Conley), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 119 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +5% MIN MIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:58 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +4% OAK MIN: Punt
3 Q1 8:54 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yardsJudgment calls +3% MIN MIN: Touchdown
4 Q1 4:38 Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (Arden Key), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 54 snaps before, position avg 1 per 249 +4% MIN MIN: Touchdown
5 Q1 3:07 Face Mask on the Raiders (Gareon Conley), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 119 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +4% MIN MIN: Touchdown
6 Q2 9:51 The Raiders converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +3% OAK OAK: Touchdown
7 Q2 5:22 The Raiders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% OAK OAK: Punt
8 Q3 9:32 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +2% OAK OAK: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Anthony Barr (MIN LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Mackensie Alexander (MIN CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Denzelle Good (OAK T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Gabe Jackson (OAK G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Denzelle Good (OAK G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 5% · Vikings 95%

Final margin
Vikings by 20
Luck in points
9.5 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 10.5
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 19% · Vikings 81% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2019 games · Raiders · Vikings

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