luckadjusted

Week 3 2019 · September 19, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Jaguars, Week 3 2019: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Titans 20–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 9 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 3.6 points to the Titans.

An off day for the Titans: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 48% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Titans were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 13:22 left): the Titans fumbled and the Jaguars recovered, worth 8 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Tennessee Titans 7
Jacksonville Jaguars 20

September 19, 2019 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Titans −1.5

Luck index +9 Jaguars about even · −9 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 1, Jaguars win 9.

  1. 1 TEN 24 JAX 17
  2. 2 TEN 27 JAX 29
  3. 3 TEN 21 JAX 26
  4. 4 TEN 13 JAX 21
  5. 5 TEN 13 JAX 23
  6. 6 TEN 3 JAX 17
  7. 7 TEN 24 JAX 41
  8. 8 TEN 7 JAX 29
  9. 9 TEN 10 JAX 35
  10. 10 TEN 3 JAX 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Titans

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 48% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%.

39 points apart for the Titans: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Titans offenseEPA per play gained −0.25 +0.09 worse by 0.33
Titans defenseEPA per play allowed +0.00 +0.10 better by 0.10
Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained +0.00 +0.04 worse by 0.04
Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed −0.25 +0.10 better by 0.35

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 9% of them, Jaguars 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+0.2%
Titans by 9–162.2%
Titans by 1–85.6%
Level after regulation0.9%
Jaguars by 1–815.6%
Jaguars by 9–1620.8%
Jaguars by 17+54.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jaguars by 13. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jaguars by 11.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Lambo, 40 yds made · 86% expected
  • J. Lambo, 48 yds made · 74% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% TEN TEN: Punt
2 Q1 13:25 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +4% TEN JAX: Punt
3 Q1 13:22 The Titans fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% JAX TEN: Punt
4 Q1 11:31 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% JAX JAX: Touchdown
5 Q1 6:42 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +5% JAX JAX: Touchdown
6 Q2 2:35 Illegal Formation on the Titans (Corey Davis), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 92 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +4% JAX JAX: Punt
7 Q3 13:05 The Titans converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +7% TEN TEN: Turnover on downs
8 Q3 11:31 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +4% JAX TEN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ryan Succop (TEN K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Wesley Woodyard (TEN LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 3% · Jaguars 97%

Final margin
Jaguars by 13
Luck in points
1.7 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 11.3
Replay with same day's form
Titans 9% · Jaguars 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2019 games · Titans · Jaguars

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