luckadjusted

Week 3 2019 · September 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Dolphins at Cowboys, Week 3 2019: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Dolphins 31–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 10 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 11.8 points to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 95% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 14:36 left): the Dolphins converted 3rd & 4, worth 14 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Miami Dolphins 6
Dallas Cowboys 31

September 22, 2019 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −22

Luck index 0 Cowboys about even · 0 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 0, Cowboys win 10.

  1. 1 MIA 6 DAL 14
  2. 2 MIA 13 DAL 28
  3. 3 MIA 14 DAL 33
  4. 4 MIA 22 DAL 45
  5. 5 MIA 14 DAL 41
  6. 6 MIA 10 DAL 40
  7. 7 MIA 0 DAL 33
  8. 8 MIA 3 DAL 40
  9. 9 MIA 0 DAL 41
  10. 10 MIA 3 DAL 54

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 0% of them, Cowboys 100%. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 25.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+0.0%
Dolphins by 9–160.1%
Dolphins by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.0%
Cowboys by 1–80.3%
Cowboys by 9–161.5%
Cowboys by 17+98.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 25. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 32.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 47 yds missed · 80% expected
  • B. Maher, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Sanders, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Sanders, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • B. Maher, 55 yds missed · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:36 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +14% MIA MIA: Missed field goal
2 Q1 13:25 J. Sanders missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before +9% DAL MIA: Punt
3 Q1 7:44 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +7% DAL DAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 7:49 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +7% MIA MIA: Field goal
5 Q2 4:01 Illegal Shift on the Cowboys, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +7% MIA MIA: Turnover
6 Q2 0:53 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Chidobe Awuzie), 26 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 132 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +13% MIA MIA: Turnover
7 Q2 0:31 The Dolphins fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% DAL MIA: Punt
8 Q3 8:32 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% MIA MIA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Michael Gallup (DAL WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Xavier Woods (DAL FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tyrone Crawford (DAL DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Antwaun Woods (DAL NT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Reshad Jones (MIA FS), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 0% · Cowboys 100%

Final margin
Cowboys by 25
Luck in points
7.3 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 32.3
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 0% · Cowboys 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2019 games · Dolphins · Cowboys

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