luckadjusted

Week 3 2019 · September 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Saints at Seahawks, Week 3 2019: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Seahawks 33–27 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Seahawks had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.9 points to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:05 left): Return touchdown by the Saints, worth 28 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

New Orleans Saints 33
Seattle Seahawks 27

September 22, 2019 · CenturyLink Field · Closing line: Seahawks −5

Luck index +31 Saints lucky · −31 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 7, Seahawks win 3.

  1. 1 NO 33 SEA 7
  2. 2 NO 40 SEA 22
  3. 3 NO 27 SEA 13
  4. 4 NO 23 SEA 12
  5. 5 NO 24 SEA 17
  6. 6 NO 28 SEA 24
  7. 7 NO 16 SEA 14
  8. 8 NO 17 SEA 19
  9. 9 NO 16 SEA 23
  10. 10 NO 3 SEA 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 69% of them, Seahawks 31%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+21.4%
Saints by 9–1621.6%
Saints by 1–825.7%
Level after regulation3.9%
Seahawks by 1–815.7%
Seahawks by 9–167.5%
Seahawks by 17+4.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 11.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:19 Return touchdown by the SaintsSpecial teams +12% NO NO: Opp touchdown
2 Q1 10:53 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% SEA SEA: Punt
3 Q1 4:36 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +8% SEA SEA: Touchdown
4 Q2 7:05 The Seahawks fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the SaintsSpecial teams +28% NO SEA: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 5:26 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% SEA SEA: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 2:37 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +10% NO SEA: End of half
7 Q4 0:30 Defensive Offside on the Saints (Cameron Jordan), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 1 flag in 129 snaps before, position avg 1 per 249 +12% SEA SEA: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:05 Illegal Use of Hands on the Saints (David Onyemata), 4 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 47 snaps before, position avg 1 per 242 +9% SEA SEA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ed Dickson (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tedric Thompson (SEA FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Simmons (SEA G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Drew Brees (NO QB), out, replaced by t.bridgewater · 1.5 pts
  • Tre'Quan Smith (NO WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Sheldon Rankins (NO DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Alex Anzalone (NO LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 91% · Seahawks 9%

Final margin
Saints by 6
Luck in points
5.4 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 11.4
Replay with same day's form
Saints 69% · Seahawks 31% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2019 games · Saints · Seahawks

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