luckadjusted

Week 3 2019 · September 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Ravens at Chiefs, Week 3 2019: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Ravens 33–28, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Chiefs win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 9.8 points to the Chiefs.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:16 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens, 13 yards, wiping out the play, worth 12 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 28
Kansas City Chiefs 33

September 22, 2019 · Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −4.5

Luck index +53 Chiefs lucky · −53 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 5, Chiefs win 5.

  1. 1 BAL 48 KC 24
  2. 2 BAL 48 KC 34
  3. 3 BAL 26 KC 17
  4. 4 BAL 26 KC 21
  5. 5 BAL 23 KC 21
  6. 6 BAL 35 KC 38
  7. 7 BAL 20 KC 27
  8. 8 BAL 24 KC 35
  9. 9 BAL 13 KC 30
  10. 10 BAL 13 KC 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 53% of them, Chiefs 47%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+12.2%
Ravens by 9–1614.9%
Ravens by 1–822.1%
Level after regulation5.0%
Chiefs by 1–821.8%
Chiefs by 9–1613.4%
Chiefs by 17+10.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chiefs by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 4.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 42 yds made · 84% expected
  • J. Tucker, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • H. Butker, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:08 The Chiefs fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% KC KC: Punt
2 Q1 11:38 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +9% BAL KC: Punt
3 Q1 5:08 The Ravens converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +7% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 14:21 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +7% KC KC: Touchdown
5 Q2 10:38 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +10% KC BAL: Punt
6 Q3 3:16 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens, 13 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% KC KC: Touchdown
7 Q4 9:21 Offensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Miles Boykin), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 62 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +6% KC KC: Field goal
8 Q4 8:13 The Ravens converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +5% BAL BAL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyreek Hill (KC WR), out · 1.4 pts
  • Eric Fisher (KC T), out · 1.3 pts
  • Damien Williams (KC RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jimmy Smith (BAL CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tavon Young (BAL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 76% · Chiefs 24%

Final margin
Chiefs by 5
Luck in points
9.4 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 4.4
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 53% · Chiefs 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2019 games · Ravens · Chiefs

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