luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2019 · September 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Ravens at Chiefs, Week 3 2019: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Ravens 33–28, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Chiefs win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:16 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens, 13 yards, wiping out the play, worth 12 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 28
Kansas City Chiefs 33

September 22, 2019 · Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −4.5

Luck index +56 Chiefs lucky · −56 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 6, Chiefs win 4.

  1. 1 BAL 40 KC 14
  2. 2 BAL 35 KC 19
  3. 3 BAL 38 KC 27
  4. 4 BAL 28 KC 21
  5. 5 BAL 17 KC 13
  6. 6 BAL 33 KC 31
  7. 7 BAL 24 KC 27
  8. 8 BAL 23 KC 30
  9. 9 BAL 27 KC 40
  10. 10 BAL 13 KC 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 56% of them, Chiefs 44%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+14.0%
Ravens by 9–1614.8%
Ravens by 1–826.7%
Level after regulation3.0%
Chiefs by 1–818.7%
Chiefs by 9–1613.4%
Chiefs by 17+9.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.9 points to the Chiefs: the final margin was Chiefs by 5, without the luck Ravens by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 42 yds made · 85% expected
  • J. Tucker, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • H. Butker, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 7 for 60 yards, Chiefs 4 for 31 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:34 Intentional Grounding on the Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes), 10 yards +3% BAL +0.9 pts
Q1 4:24 Illegal Formation on the Chiefs (Chris Jones), 1 yard · pre-snap +1% BAL 0.0 pts
Q1 3:38 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Pernell McPhee), 15 yards +5% KC +1.8 pts
Q1 0:30 Horse Collar Tackle on the Ravens (Matt Judon), 2 yards +5% KC +1.7 pts
Q2 6:34 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Willie Snead), 10 yards +3% KC +0.9 pts
Q2 1:48 False Start on the Ravens (Willie Snead), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KC +0.4 pts
Q2 0:33 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards 0% BAL +1.0 pts
Q3 4:26 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Chiefs (Travis Kelce), 10 yards +1% BAL +0.9 pts
Q3 3:16 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens, 13 yards, wiping out the play +12% KC +5.5 pts
Q4 9:21 Offensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Miles Boykin), 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% KC +2.3 pts
Q4 5:02 Illegal Use of Hands on the Ravens (Matt Judon), 5 yards 0% KC +0.3 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:08 The Chiefs fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% KC KC: Punt
2 Q1 5:08 The Ravens converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +7% BAL BAL: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:38 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Pernell McPhee), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 62 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 +5% KC KC: Touchdown
4 Q2 10:38 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +9% KC BAL: Punt
5 Q3 3:16 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens, 13 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% KC KC: Touchdown
6 Q4 9:21 Offensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Miles Boykin), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 62 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +6% KC KC: Field goal
7 Q4 8:13 The Ravens converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +5% BAL BAL: Field goal
8 Q4 1:51 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% KC KC: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyreek Hill (KC WR), out · 1.4 pts
  • Eric Fisher (KC T), out · 1.3 pts
  • Damien Williams (KC RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jimmy Smith (BAL CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tavon Young (BAL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 65% · Chiefs 35%

Final margin
Chiefs by 5
Luck in points
5.9 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 56% · Chiefs 44% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2019 games · Ravens · Chiefs

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